The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
75%Texas State BobcatsStrong✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Texas State Bobcats 62%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TXST by 5.5market TXST by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.4 pointsmarket 57.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas State Bobcats at 75% to win, with the market at TXST by 10.
TXST has the advantage in passing: TXST passing ranks #16, SDSU defends it at #95; the other way SDSU #133 into TXST's #111.
TXST has the advantage in rushing: TXST rushing ranks #47, SDSU defends it at #56; the other way SDSU #111 into TXST's #44.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours SDSU. SDSU turnovers / game ranks #106, TXST defends it at #101; the other way TXST #122 into SDSU's #58. The pick still lands on TXST because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with SDSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TXST by 5.5 against a market TXST by 10: 4.5 points of daylight in SDSU's favour. The model's total is 57.4 against a line of 57.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TXST by 5.5 · market TXST by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TXST
Clear advantage
TXST passing ranks #16, SDSU defends it at #95; the other way SDSU #133 into TXST's #111.
Rushing game
TXST
Clear advantage
TXST rushing ranks #47, SDSU defends it at #56; the other way SDSU #111 into TXST's #44.
Third down & red zone
TXST
Slight advantage
TXST third-down conversion ranks #5, SDSU defends it at #93; the other way SDSU #128 into TXST's #100.
Big plays
=
Even
TXST pass explosiveness ranks #15, SDSU defends it at #94; the other way SDSU #29 into TXST's #28.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
TXST sack rate ranks #17, SDSU defends it at #82; the other way SDSU #74 into TXST's #132.
Ball security
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU turnovers / game ranks #106, TXST defends it at #101; the other way TXST #122 into SDSU's #58.
Form (last 5)
TXST
Slight advantage
SDSU −4.2 per game over the last five, TXST +1.6.
Market
TXST
Clear advantage
Consensus has TXST by 10; the model says TXST by 5.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TXST by 10 · model TXST by 5.5
Mkt TXST 10
Model TXST 5.5
← TXST by 28tieSDSU by 28 →
6.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 57.5 · model 57.4
Mkt 57.5
Model 57.4
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
