The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
90%Boise State BroncosStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Boise State Broncos 86%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BOIS by 18.4market BOIS by 19.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.7 pointsmarket 50.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Boise State Broncos at 90% to win, with the market at BOIS by 19.5.
BOIS has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BOIS third-down conversion ranks #10, USU defends it at #114; the other way USU #75 into BOIS's #6.
BOIS has the advantage in passing: BOIS passing ranks #27, USU defends it at #64; the other way USU #130 into BOIS's #38.
Counterpoint: big plays favours USU. USU pass explosiveness ranks #25, BOIS defends it at #136; the other way BOIS #62 into USU's #15. The pick still lands on BOIS because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BOIS has the better last five games by 24.8 points a game (BOIS +13.8, USU -11.0).
Home field is with BOIS, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BOIS by 18.4 against a market BOIS by 19.5: 1.1 points of daylight in USU's favour. The model's total is 45.7 against a line of 50.5: 4.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BOIS by 18.4 · market BOIS by 19.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS passing ranks #27, USU defends it at #64; the other way USU #130 into BOIS's #38.
Rushing game
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS rushing ranks #23, USU defends it at #62; the other way USU #106 into BOIS's #82.
Third down & red zone
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS third-down conversion ranks #10, USU defends it at #114; the other way USU #75 into BOIS's #6.
Big plays
USU
Clear advantage
USU pass explosiveness ranks #25, BOIS defends it at #136; the other way BOIS #62 into USU's #15.
Pass protection & rush
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS sack rate ranks #43, USU defends it at #123; the other way USU #127 into BOIS's #31.
Ball security
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS turnovers / game ranks #25, USU defends it at #95; the other way USU #135 into BOIS's #74.
Form (last 5)
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS +13.8 per game over the last five, USU −11.0.
Market
BOIS
Clear advantage
Consensus has BOIS by 19.5; the model says BOIS by 18.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BOIS by 19.5 · model BOIS by 18.4
Mkt BOIS 19.5
Model BOIS 18.4
← USU by 28tieBOIS by 28 →
1.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 45.7
Mkt 50.5
Model 45.7
24 pts6096 pts
10.4% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 45.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: USUModel disagrees
Opened
BOIS -20.5
→
Market maker now
BOIS -19.25
▼ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
BOIS -19.5
in line
44 moves8 books8 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: BOIS -20 → BOIS -21
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
