The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
56%Air Force FalconsLean✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Navy Midshipmen 55%, the other way, so the margin and score here are the model's own read and lean opposite the pick.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NAVY by 2.2market AFA by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.4 pointsmarket 45.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Air Force Falcons at 56% to win, with the market at AFA by 2.5.
AFA has the advantage in passing: AFA passing ranks #104, NAVY defends it at #113; the other way NAVY #131 into AFA's #30.
AFA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: AFA third-down conversion ranks #27, NAVY defends it at #128; the other way NAVY #94 into AFA's #12.
Home field is with AFA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NAVY by 2.2 against a market AFA by 2.5: 4.7 points of daylight in NAVY's favour. The model's total is 55.4 against a line of 45.5: 9.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NAVY by 2.2 · market AFA by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor AFA, but the model still picks NAVY. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
AFA
Clear advantage
AFA passing ranks #104, NAVY defends it at #113; the other way NAVY #131 into AFA's #30.
Rushing game
NAVY
Slight advantage
NAVY rushing ranks #19, AFA defends it at #65; the other way AFA #30 into NAVY's #39.
Third down & red zone
AFA
Clear advantage
AFA third-down conversion ranks #27, NAVY defends it at #128; the other way NAVY #94 into AFA's #12.
Big plays
=
Even
NAVY rush explosiveness ranks #46, AFA defends it at #103; the other way AFA #66 into NAVY's #86.
Pass protection & rush
AFA
Slight advantage
AFA sack rate ranks #58, NAVY defends it at #6; the other way NAVY #130 into AFA's #53.
Ball security
AFA
Slight advantage
AFA turnovers / game ranks #50, NAVY defends it at #119; the other way NAVY #79 into AFA's #87.
Form (last 5)
AFA
Clear advantage
AFA +9.0 per game over the last five, NAVY +2.5.
Market
AFA
Slight advantage
Consensus has AFA by 2.5; the model says NAVY by 2.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket AFA by 2.5 · model NAVY by 2.2
Mkt AFA 2.5
Model NAVY 2.2
← NAVY by 28tieAFA by 28 →
5.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 55.4
Mkt 45.5
Model 55.4
24 pts6096 pts
23.3% of FBS games finish between 45.5 and 55.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
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Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
