The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
79%Miami (OH) RedHawksStrong✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Miami (OH) RedHawks 83%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
M-OH by 16.2market M-OH by 10.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.7 pointsmarket 41.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami (OH) RedHawks at 79% to win, with the market at M-OH by 10.5.
M-OH has the advantage in big plays: M-OH pass explosiveness ranks #10, BGSU defends it at #64; the other way BGSU #113 into M-OH's #79.
M-OH has the advantage in rushing: M-OH rushing ranks #109, BGSU defends it at #122; the other way BGSU #137 into M-OH's #84.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours BGSU. BGSU sack rate ranks #22, M-OH defends it at #122; the other way M-OH #104 into BGSU's #5. The pick still lands on M-OH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: M-OH has the better last five games by 19.2 points a game (M-OH -2.4, BGSU -21.6).
Home field is with M-OH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it M-OH by 16.2 against a market M-OH by 10.5: 5.7 points of daylight in M-OH's favour. The model's total is 43.7 against a line of 41.5: 2.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model M-OH by 16.2 · market M-OH by 10.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
M-OH
Slight advantage
M-OH passing ranks #8, BGSU defends it at #75; the other way BGSU #90 into M-OH's #105.
Rushing game
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH rushing ranks #109, BGSU defends it at #122; the other way BGSU #137 into M-OH's #84.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BGSU third-down conversion ranks #118, M-OH defends it at #126; the other way M-OH #84 into BGSU's #35.
Big plays
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH pass explosiveness ranks #10, BGSU defends it at #64; the other way BGSU #113 into M-OH's #79.
Pass protection & rush
BGSU
Clear advantage
BGSU sack rate ranks #22, M-OH defends it at #122; the other way M-OH #104 into BGSU's #5.
Ball security
=
Even
M-OH turnovers / game ranks #32, BGSU defends it at #89; the other way BGSU #66 into M-OH's #120.
Form (last 5)
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH −2.4 per game over the last five, BGSU −21.6.
Market
M-OH
Clear advantage
Consensus has M-OH by 10.5; the model says M-OH by 16.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket M-OH by 10.5 · model M-OH by 16.2
Mkt M-OH 10.5
Model M-OH 16.2
← BGSU by 28tieM-OH by 28 →
7.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 43.7
Mkt 41.5
Model 43.7
24 pts6096 pts
3.0% of FBS games finish between 41.5 and 43.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: BGSUModel disagrees
Opened
M-OH -14.5
→
Market maker now
M-OH -10.5
▼ 4 since open
→
Retail now
M-OH -10.5
in line
32 moves8 books4 ledSteam Fri, Oct 2, 4:49 PM
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: M-OH -14.5 → M-OH -13.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still M-OH -14.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
46
→
Market maker now
41.8
▼ 4.3 since open
→
Retail now
41.5
in line
31 moves8 books0 led
Mon, Sep 28, 1:49 PM first sharp move: 46 → 43
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 45.8 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
