The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
79%Western Michigan BroncosStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Western Michigan Broncos 60%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WMU by 4.5market WMU by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.0 pointsmarket 46.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Western Michigan Broncos at 79% to win, with the market at WMU by 13.5.
WMU has the advantage in passing: WMU passing ranks #107, BUFF defends it at #93; the other way BUFF #108 into WMU's #60.
WMU has the advantage in rushing: WMU rushing ranks #69, BUFF defends it at #49; the other way BUFF #116 into WMU's #71.
Form: WMU has the better last five games by 14.0 points a game (BUFF -10.2, WMU +3.8).
Home field is with BUFF, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it WMU by 4.5 against a market WMU by 13.5: 9.0 points of daylight in BUFF's favour. The model's total is 48.0 against a line of 46.5: 1.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WMU by 4.5 · market WMU by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WMU
Slight advantage
WMU passing ranks #107, BUFF defends it at #93; the other way BUFF #108 into WMU's #60.
Rushing game
WMU
Slight advantage
WMU rushing ranks #69, BUFF defends it at #49; the other way BUFF #116 into WMU's #71.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WMU points / scoring opportunity ranks #47, BUFF defends it at #85; the other way BUFF #73 into WMU's #64.
Big plays
=
Even
WMU pass explosiveness ranks #126, BUFF defends it at #123; the other way BUFF #77 into WMU's #50.
Pass protection & rush
BUFF
Slight advantage
BUFF sack rate ranks #38, WMU defends it at #99; the other way WMU #82 into BUFF's #113.
Ball security
WMU
Clear advantage
WMU turnovers / game ranks #11, BUFF defends it at #132; the other way BUFF #115 into WMU's #99.
Form (last 5)
WMU
Clear advantage
BUFF −10.2 per game over the last five, WMU +3.8.
Market
WMU
Clear advantage
Consensus has WMU by 13.5; the model says WMU by 4.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WMU by 13.5 · model WMU by 4.5
Mkt WMU 13.5
Model WMU 4.5
← WMU by 28tieBUFF by 28 →
11.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 48.0
Mkt 46.5
Model 48.0
24 pts6096 pts
5.4% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 48.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: BUFFModel agrees
Opened
WMU -14
→
Market maker now
WMU -13
▲ 1 since open
→
Retail now
WMU -13
in line
31 moves8 books11 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: WMU -14 → WMU -13.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still WMU -14.25 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
47.5
→
Market maker now
45
▼ 2.5 since open
→
Retail now
45.5
0.5 behind
22 moves8 books1 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: 48 → 47
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 47.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
