The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
68%Tennessee VolunteersSolid✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Tennessee Volunteers 75%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TENN by 11.9market TENN by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.5 pointsmarket 54.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Volunteers at 68% to win, with the market at TENN by 6.
TENN has the advantage in passing: TENN passing ranks #123, AUB defends it at #50; the other way AUB #115 into TENN's #1.
TENN has the advantage in rushing: TENN rushing ranks #6, AUB defends it at #64; the other way AUB #49 into TENN's #70.
Form: TENN has the better last five games by 16.2 points a game (TENN +21.6, AUB +5.4).
Home field is with TENN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TENN by 11.9 against a market TENN by 6: 5.9 points of daylight in TENN's favour. The model's total is 53.5 against a line of 54.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TENN by 11.9 · market TENN by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN passing ranks #123, AUB defends it at #50; the other way AUB #115 into TENN's #1.
Rushing game
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN rushing ranks #6, AUB defends it at #64; the other way AUB #49 into TENN's #70.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TENN points / scoring opportunity ranks #20, AUB defends it at #58; the other way AUB #75 into TENN's #9.
Big plays
=
Even
AUB rush explosiveness ranks #27, TENN defends it at #116; the other way TENN #38 into AUB's #62.
Pass protection & rush
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN sack rate ranks #124, AUB defends it at #33; the other way AUB #126 into TENN's #2.
Ball security
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN turnovers / game ranks #62, AUB defends it at #30; the other way AUB #114 into TENN's #44.
Form (last 5)
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN +21.6 per game over the last five, AUB +5.4.
Market
TENN
Clear advantage
Consensus has TENN by 6; the model says TENN by 11.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TENN by 6 · model TENN by 11.9
Mkt TENN 6
Model TENN 11.9
← AUB by 28tieTENN by 28 →
10.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 2.8% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 53.5
Mkt 54.5
Model 53.5
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 53.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: AUBModel disagrees
Opened
TENN -7.5
→
Market maker now
TENN -6.5
▼ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
TENN -6.25
in line
15 moves8 books5 led
Fri, Oct 2, 10:10 PM first sharp move: TENN -7 → TENN -6.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still TENN -7 at that point
Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
57.5
→
Market maker now
54.3
▼ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
54.5
in line
25 moves8 books3 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:07 PM first sharp move: 54.5 → 54
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 54.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
