The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
65%Alabama Crimson TideSolid✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Alabama Crimson Tide 60%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ALA by 4.2market ALA by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
71.7 pointsmarket 62.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Alabama Crimson Tide at 65% to win, with the market at ALA by 5.5.
ALA has the advantage in rushing: ALA rushing ranks #12, MSST defends it at #61; the other way MSST #39 into ALA's #8.
ALA has the advantage in passing: ALA passing ranks #10, MSST defends it at #72; the other way MSST #26 into ALA's #27.
Form: ALA has the better last five games by 17.8 points a game (MSST +11.0, ALA +28.8).
Home field is with MSST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ALA by 4.2 against a market ALA by 5.5: 1.3 points of daylight in MSST's favour. The model's total is 71.7 against a line of 62.5: 9.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ALA by 4.2 · market ALA by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ALA
Slight advantage
ALA passing ranks #10, MSST defends it at #72; the other way MSST #26 into ALA's #27.
Rushing game
ALA
Clear advantage
ALA rushing ranks #12, MSST defends it at #61; the other way MSST #39 into ALA's #8.
Third down & red zone
ALA
Slight advantage
ALA third-down conversion ranks #28, MSST defends it at #62; the other way MSST #40 into ALA's #15.
Big plays
MSST
Slight advantage
MSST rush explosiveness ranks #72, ALA defends it at #98; the other way ALA #35 into MSST's #15.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ALA sack rate ranks #111, MSST defends it at #42; the other way MSST #95 into ALA's #19.
Ball security
ALA
Clear advantage
ALA turnovers / game ranks #65, MSST defends it at #110; the other way MSST #92 into ALA's #3.
Form (last 5)
ALA
Clear advantage
MSST +11.0 per game over the last five, ALA +28.8.
Market
ALA
Clear advantage
Consensus has ALA by 5.5; the model says ALA by 4.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ALA by 5.5 · model ALA by 4.2
Mkt ALA 5.5
Model ALA 4.2
← ALA by 28tieMSST by 28 →
0.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 62.5 · model 71.7
Mkt 62.5
Model 71.7
24 pts6096 pts
14.6% of FBS games finish between 62.5 and 71.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: MSSTModel agrees
Opened
ALA -3
→
Market maker now
ALA -5.5
▲ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
ALA -5.5
in line
23 moves8 books5 led
Thu, Oct 1, 10:10 AM first sharp move: ALA -6 → ALA -5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still ALA -6 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel agrees
Opened
58.5
→
Market maker now
63
▲ 3.5 since open
→
Retail now
62.5
0.5 behind
35 moves8 books9 ledSteam Sat, Oct 3, 7:49 AM
Mon, Sep 28, 10:07 PM first sharp move: 59.5 → 60
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 59.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
