The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
91%Notre Dame Fighting IrishStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 89%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ND by 21.4market ND by 21
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.1 pointsmarket 46.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 91% to win, with the market at ND by 21.
ND has the advantage in rushing: ND rushing ranks #32, UNC defends it at #96; the other way UNC #70 into ND's #7.
ND has the advantage in passing: ND passing ranks #9, UNC defends it at #57; the other way UNC #81 into ND's #24.
Rest: UNC has 7 more days since its last game (UNC 14d, ND 7d).
Form: ND has the better last five games by 24.9 points a game (UNC +4.5, ND +29.4).
Home field is with UNC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ND by 21.4 against a market ND by 21: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 45.1 against a line of 46.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ND by 21.4 · market ND by 21
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ND
Clear advantage
ND passing ranks #9, UNC defends it at #57; the other way UNC #81 into ND's #24.
Rushing game
ND
Clear advantage
ND rushing ranks #32, UNC defends it at #96; the other way UNC #70 into ND's #7.
Third down & red zone
ND
Slight advantage
ND points / scoring opportunity ranks #7, UNC defends it at #70; the other way UNC #34 into ND's #12.
Big plays
=
Even
UNC rush explosiveness ranks #124, ND defends it at #64; the other way ND #118 into UNC's #32.
Pass protection & rush
ND
Clear advantage
ND sack rate ranks #2, UNC defends it at #41; the other way UNC #101 into ND's #17.
Ball security
ND
Clear advantage
ND turnovers / game ranks #2, UNC defends it at #67; the other way UNC #96 into ND's #5.
Form (last 5)
ND
Clear advantage
UNC +4.5 per game over the last five, ND +29.4.
Market
ND
Clear advantage
Consensus has ND by 21; the model says ND by 21.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ND by 21 · model ND by 21.4
Mkt ND 21
Model ND 21.4
← ND by 28tieUNC by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 21, a number 3.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 45.1
Mkt 46.5
Model 45.1
24 pts6096 pts
1.3% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 45.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
