The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
93%Georgia BulldogsStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Georgia Bulldogs 76%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UGA by 12.4market UGA by 25.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.2 pointsmarket 49.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Georgia Bulldogs at 93% to win, with the market at UGA by 25.5.
UGA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UGA third-down conversion ranks #6, VAN defends it at #76; the other way VAN #111 into UGA's #43.
UGA has the advantage in rushing: UGA rushing ranks #9, VAN defends it at #45; the other way VAN #62 into UGA's #1.
Form: UGA has the better last five games by 37.6 points a game (UGA +38.0, VAN +0.4).
Home field is with UGA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UGA by 12.4 against a market UGA by 25.5: 13.1 points of daylight in VAN's favour. The model's total is 59.2 against a line of 49.5: 9.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UGA by 12.4 · market UGA by 25.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA passing ranks #5, VAN defends it at #68; the other way VAN #75 into UGA's #56.
Rushing game
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA rushing ranks #9, VAN defends it at #45; the other way VAN #62 into UGA's #1.
Third down & red zone
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA third-down conversion ranks #6, VAN defends it at #76; the other way VAN #111 into UGA's #43.
Big plays
=
Even
VAN rush explosiveness ranks #37, UGA defends it at #6; the other way UGA #115 into VAN's #54.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
UGA sack rate ranks #40, VAN defends it at #24; the other way VAN #75 into UGA's #58.
Ball security
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA turnovers / game ranks #37, VAN defends it at #80; the other way VAN #71 into UGA's #12.
Form (last 5)
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA +38.0 per game over the last five, VAN +0.4.
Market
UGA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UGA by 25.5; the model says UGA by 12.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UGA by 25.5 · model UGA by 12.4
Mkt UGA 25.5
Model UGA 12.4
← VAN by 28tieUGA by 28 →
17.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 59.2
Mkt 49.5
Model 59.2
24 pts6096 pts
23.9% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 59.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: UGAModel agrees
Opened
UGA -23.5
→
Market maker now
UGA -25.5
▲ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
UGA -25.5
in line
33 moves8 books5 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: UGA -25 → UGA -24
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still UGA -24.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
57.5
→
Market maker now
50
▼ 2 since open
→
Retail now
50.5
0.5 behind
31 moves8 books6 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: 51.5 → 51
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 52.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
