The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
82%Ohio State BuckeyesStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Ohio State Buckeyes 58%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OSU by 3.6market OSU by 14.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.0 pointsmarket 46.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio State Buckeyes at 82% to win, with the market at OSU by 14.5.
OSU has the advantage in passing: OSU passing ranks #3, IOWA defends it at #114; the other way IOWA #62 into OSU's #16.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours IOWA. IOWA sack rate ranks #13, OSU defends it at #90; the other way OSU #67 into IOWA's #20. The pick still lands on OSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: OSU has the better last five games by 13.2 points a game (IOWA +16.4, OSU +29.6).
Home field is with IOWA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it OSU by 3.6 against a market OSU by 14.5: 10.9 points of daylight in IOWA's favour. The model's total is 44.0 against a line of 46.5: 2.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OSU by 3.6 · market OSU by 14.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU passing ranks #3, IOWA defends it at #114; the other way IOWA #62 into OSU's #16.
Rushing game
IOWA
Slight advantage
IOWA rushing ranks #66, OSU defends it at #53; the other way OSU #74 into IOWA's #16.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
OSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #14, IOWA defends it at #25; the other way IOWA #80 into OSU's #47.
Big plays
=
Even
IOWA rush explosiveness ranks #11, OSU defends it at #94; the other way OSU #104 into IOWA's #2.
Pass protection & rush
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA sack rate ranks #13, OSU defends it at #90; the other way OSU #67 into IOWA's #20.
Ball security
OSU
Slight advantage
OSU turnovers / game ranks #42, IOWA defends it at #93; the other way IOWA #23 into OSU's #41.
Form (last 5)
OSU
Clear advantage
IOWA +16.4 per game over the last five, OSU +29.6.
Market
OSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has OSU by 14.5; the model says OSU by 3.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OSU by 14.5 · model OSU by 3.6
Mkt OSU 14.5
Model OSU 3.6
← OSU by 28tieIOWA by 28 →
14.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 44.0
Mkt 46.5
Model 44.0
24 pts6096 pts
4.5% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 44.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: OSUModel agrees
Opened
OSU -14
→
Market maker now
OSU -14.5
▼ 1 since open
→
Retail now
OSU -14.5
in line
31 moves8 books7 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: OSU -13.5 → OSU -13
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still OSU -13.5 at that point
Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
44.5
→
Market maker now
46.3
▲ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
46.5
in line
13 moves8 books3 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: 46 → 45.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 45.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
