The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
56%Penn State Nittany LionsLean✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Penn State Nittany Lions 61%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PSU by 4.6market PSU by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.5 pointsmarket 46.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Penn State Nittany Lions at 56% to win, with the market at PSU by 3.
PSU has the advantage in passing: PSU passing ranks #30, NU defends it at #54; the other way NU #24 into PSU's #3.
Counterpoint: rushing favours NU. NU rushing ranks #17, PSU defends it at #132; the other way PSU #96 into NU's #83. The pick still lands on PSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with NU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PSU by 4.6 against a market PSU by 3: 1.6 points of daylight in PSU's favour. The model's total is 45.5 against a line of 46.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PSU by 4.6 · market PSU by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU passing ranks #30, NU defends it at #54; the other way NU #24 into PSU's #3.
Rushing game
NU
Clear advantage
NU rushing ranks #17, PSU defends it at #132; the other way PSU #96 into NU's #83.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NU points / scoring opportunity ranks #22, PSU defends it at #91; the other way PSU #64 into NU's #21.
Big plays
NU
Slight advantage
NU rush explosiveness ranks #29, PSU defends it at #134; the other way PSU #102 into NU's #43.
Pass protection & rush
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU sack rate ranks #51, NU defends it at #108; the other way NU #118 into PSU's #95.
Ball security
=
Even
NU turnovers / game ranks #13, PSU defends it at #17; the other way PSU #22 into NU's #22.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
NU +16.3 per game over the last five, PSU +16.0.
Market
PSU
Slight advantage
Consensus has PSU by 3; the model says PSU by 4.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PSU by 3 · model PSU by 4.6
Mkt PSU 3
Model PSU 4.6
← PSU by 28tieNU by 28 →
1.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 45.5
Mkt 46.5
Model 45.5
24 pts6096 pts
1.3% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 45.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
PSU -7
→
Market maker now
PSU -2.5
no move
→
Retail now
PSU -2.5
in line
22 moves8 books6 led
Tue, Sep 29, 10:10 AM first sharp move: PSU -2.5 → PSU -3
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still PSU -2.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
48.5
→
Market maker now
47
▲ 1.8 since open
→
Retail now
47
in line
29 moves8 books13 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: 45.5 → 46.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 45.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
