Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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New Mexico Lobos
2-1
Model predicts
30 – 20
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium · 80° · Mostly sunny
New Mexico State Aggies
1-2
Spread UNM -11.5 (opened UNM -12.5)Total 48.5Moneyline UNM -460 · NMSU +3587 books · best UNM -450 betmgm · NMSU +375 hardrockbet
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UNM -460
73%
model margin UNM by 10.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
NMSU +11.5
50%
0.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 48.5
50%
model total 49.8
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has UNM winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, NMSU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: UNM rushing ranks #26, NMSU defends it at #71; the other way NMSU #79 into UNM's #23. The model lands on UNM by 10.7, essentially the market's number — no spread lean.

Who has the edge

Model: UNM by 10.7 · market UNM by 11.5
Passing game
Even
—
UNM passing ranks #130, NMSU defends it at #84; the other way NMSU #87 into UNM's #23.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
UNM
UNM rushing ranks #26, NMSU defends it at #71; the other way NMSU #79 into UNM's #23.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
UNM
NMSU third-down conversion ranks #16, UNM defends it at #24; the other way UNM #96 into NMSU's #101.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UNM
NMSU +3.3 per game over the last five, UNM +28.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
UNM
Consensus has UNM by 11.5; the model says UNM by 10.7.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNM by 11.5 · model UNM by 10.7
Mkt UNM 11.5
Model UNM 10.7
-28028

0.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 48.5 · model 49.8
Mkt 48.5
Model 49.8
246096

2.2% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 49.8 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: NMSU · model agrees
Opened
UNM -13
Pinnacle now
UNM -11(+1)
Retail now
UNM -11.5+0.5 behind
Moves
22 across 7 books · 4 led

First sharp move Mon 4:20 PM: UNM -12 → UNM -10.5, 5 books followed within six hours; retail was still UNM -12.5.Steam Mon 4:20 PM

Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
50
Pinnacle now
48.5
Retail now
48.5
Moves
7 across 7 books · 2 led

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.