Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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South Florida Bulls
3-0
Model predicts
40 – 14
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 71° · Sunny
Bowling Green Falcons
0-3
Spread USF -17.5 (opened USF -15.5)Total 49Moneyline USF -1000 · BGSU +6507 books · best USF -900 betmgm · BGSU +700 hardrockbet
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
USF -1000
93%
model margin USF by 25.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
USF -17.5
53%
8.2 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 49
52%
model total 54.3 · best over 48.5 at hardrockbet

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: USF rushing ranks #19, BGSU defends it at #134; the other way BGSU #137 into USF's #21. The model lands on USF by 25.7 against a market USF by 17.5, so the spread lean is USF by 8.2 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 54.3 against 49.

Who has the edge

Model: USF by 25.7 · market USF by 17.5
Passing game
Slight edge
USF
USF passing ranks #49, BGSU defends it at #125; the other way BGSU #81 into USF's #102.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
USF
USF rushing ranks #19, BGSU defends it at #134; the other way BGSU #137 into USF's #21.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
USF
USF third-down conversion ranks #28, BGSU defends it at #64; the other way BGSU #129 into USF's #32.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
USF
BGSU −34.7 per game over the last five, USF +18.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
USF
Consensus has USF by 17.5; the model says USF by 25.7.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket USF by 17.5 · model USF by 25.7
Mkt USF 17.5
Model USF 25.7
-28028

5.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 49 · model 54.3
Mkt 49
Model 54.3
246096

11.2% of FBS games finish between 49 and 54.3 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: USF · model agrees
Opened
USF -15.5
Pinnacle now
USF -18(-0.5)
Retail now
USF -17.5-0.5 behind
Moves
17 across 7 books · 8 led

First sharp move Thu 7:21 PM: USF -17.5 → USF -18.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still USF -17.5.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model disagrees
Opened
51.5
Pinnacle now
48.8(-0.3)
Retail now
49.5-0.8 behind
Moves
17 across 7 books · 7 led

First sharp move Tue 4:20 AM: 49.5 → 48.5, 1 book followed within six hours; retail was still 48.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.