Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Oklahoma State Cowboys
2-1
Model predicts
22 – 32
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium · 67° · Mostly sunny
West Virginia Mountaineers
3-0
Spread WVU -1.5 (opened OKST -2.5)Total 60.5Moneyline OKST +105 · WVU -1257 books · best OKST +109 pinnacle · WVU -123 betonlineag
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WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
WVU -125
73%
model margin WVU by 10.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
WVU -1.5
53%
8.9 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 60.5
52%
model total 54.6 · best under 61 at pinnacle

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: WVU passing ranks #2, OKST defends it at #51; the other way OKST #95 into WVU's #87. The model lands on WVU by 10.4 against a market WVU by 1.5, so the spread lean is WVU by 8.9 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 54.6 against 60.5.

Who has the edge

Model: WVU by 10.4 · market WVU by 1.5
Passing game
Slight edge
WVU
WVU passing ranks #2, OKST defends it at #51; the other way OKST #95 into WVU's #87.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
WVU
WVU rushing ranks #63, OKST defends it at #42; the other way OKST #112 into WVU's #41.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
WVU
WVU third-down conversion ranks #15, OKST defends it at #2; the other way OKST #110 into WVU's #65.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
WVU
WVU +21.0 per game over the last five, OKST +17.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
WVU
Consensus has WVU by 1.5; the model says WVU by 10.4.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WVU by 1.5 · model WVU by 10.4
Mkt WVU 1.5
Model WVU 10.4
-28028

20.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 60.5 · model 54.6
Mkt 60.5
Model 54.6
246096

13.8% of FBS games finish between 60.5 and 54.6 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
OKST -1.5
Pinnacle now
WVU -1.75(+0.3)
Retail now
WVU -1.5
Moves
23 across 7 books · 1 led

First sharp move Mon 4:20 AM: WVU -1.5 → WVU -2.5, 3 books followed within six hours; retail was still WVU -1.5.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model disagrees
Opened
58.5
Pinnacle now
60.5(+1)
Retail now
60.5
Moves
27 across 7 books · 8 led

First sharp move Mon 6:30 PM: 59.5 → 59, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 59.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.