Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Utah Utes
3-0
Model predicts
31 – 22
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium · 62° · 11 mph wind · 70% precip · Cloudy
Iowa State Cyclones
2-1
Spread UTAH -8 (opened UTAH -11.5)Total 47.5Moneyline UTAH -340 · ISU +2707 books · best UTAH -325 betmgm · ISU +279 pinnacle
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
UTAH -340
69%
model margin UTAH by 8.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
UTAH -8
50%
0.7 pts from the number · best UTAH -7.5 at draftkings
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 47.5
52%
model total 52.6

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: UTAH passing ranks #21, ISU defends it at #33; the other way ISU #55 into UTAH's #11. The model lands on UTAH by 8.7, essentially the market's number — no spread lean. On the total the model sees 52.6 against 47.5.

Who has the edge

Model: UTAH by 8.7 · market UTAH by 8
Passing game
Slight edge
UTAH
UTAH passing ranks #21, ISU defends it at #33; the other way ISU #55 into UTAH's #11.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
ISU
ISU rushing ranks #32, UTAH defends it at #89; the other way UTAH #11 into ISU's #12.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
UTAH
UTAH third-down conversion ranks #6, ISU defends it at #23; the other way ISU #103 into UTAH's #44.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UTAH
ISU +24.3 per game over the last five, UTAH +39.3.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
UTAH
Consensus has UTAH by 8; the model says UTAH by 8.7.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTAH by 8 · model UTAH by 8.7
Mkt UTAH 8
Model UTAH 8.7
-28028

No whole-number margin falls between 8 and 8.7, so the two sides differ only on a push at 8. The market is on 8, a number 2.8% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 47.5 · model 52.6
Mkt 47.5
Model 52.6
246096

13.2% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 52.6 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: ISU · model disagrees
Opened
UTAH -11.5
Pinnacle now
UTAH -8(+0.8)
Retail now
UTAH -8
Moves
20 across 7 books · 2 led

First sharp move Sun 8:04 PM: UTAH -10 → UTAH -8, 2 books followed within six hours; retail was still UTAH -10.5.Steam Sun 8:04 PM

Total
Sharp side: the under · model disagrees
Opened
49.5
Pinnacle now
48(-1)
Retail now
47.5+0.5 behind
Moves
18 across 7 books · 1 led

First sharp move Mon 10:58 PM: 49 → 48, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 49.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.