Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Wisconsin Badgers
2-1
Model predicts
13 – 32
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET
Beaver Stadium · 67° · Partly sunny
Penn State Nittany Lions
3-0
Spread PSU -10 (opened PSU -11.5)Total 44.5Moneyline WIS +308 · PSU -3957 books · best WIS +325 hardrockbet · PSU -375 betmgm
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
PSU -395
87%
model margin PSU by 19.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
PSU -10
53%
9.4 pts from the number · best PSU -9.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 44.5
50%
model total 44.5 · best over 43.5 at fanduel

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: PSU passing ranks #3, WIS defends it at #71; the other way WIS #65 into PSU's #6. The model lands on PSU by 19.4 against a market PSU by 10, so the spread lean is PSU by 9.4 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: PSU by 19.4 · market PSU by 10
Passing game
Clear edge
PSU
PSU passing ranks #3, WIS defends it at #71; the other way WIS #65 into PSU's #6.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
WIS rushing ranks #68, PSU defends it at #72; the other way PSU #91 into WIS's #86.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
PSU
WIS third-down conversion ranks #35, PSU defends it at #1; the other way PSU #67 into WIS's #22.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
PSU
PSU +35.0 per game over the last five, WIS +14.3.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
PSU
Consensus has PSU by 10; the model says PSU by 19.4.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PSU by 10 · model PSU by 19.4
Mkt PSU 10
Model PSU 19.4
-28028

11.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 44.5 · model 44.5
Mkt 44.5
Model 44.5
246096

Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
PSU -10.5
Pinnacle now
PSU -10(+0.3)
Retail now
PSU -10
Moves
30 across 7 books · 2 led

First sharp move Sun 3:28 PM: PSU -9.5 → PSU -10, 1 book followed within six hours; retail was still PSU -9.5.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model disagrees
Opened
44.5
Pinnacle now
44.8(-0.8)
Retail now
44.5
Moves
17 across 7 books · 4 led

First sharp move Sun 3:28 PM: 44.5 → 45.5, 3 books followed within six hours; retail was still 44.5.Steam Sun 3:28 PM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.