Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Iowa Hawkeyes
3-0
Model predicts
21 – 21
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Michigan Stadium · 71° · Sunny
Michigan Wolverines
3-0
Spread MICH -5.5 (opened MICH -4.5)Total 38.5Moneyline IOWA +180 · MICH -2207 books · best IOWA +187 pinnacle · MICH -210 betonlineag
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
MICH -220
51%
model margin MICH by 0.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
IOWA +5.5
52%
5.2 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 38.5
51%
model total 42.7
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has MICH winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, IOWA. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: IOWA rushing ranks #10, MICH defends it at #34; the other way MICH #66 into IOWA's #14. The model lands on MICH by 0.3 against a market MICH by 5.5, so the spread lean is IOWA by 5.2 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 42.7 against 38.5.

Who has the edge

Model: MICH by 0.3 · market MICH by 5.5
Passing game
Even
—
MICH passing ranks #64, IOWA defends it at #19; the other way IOWA #53 into MICH's #8.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
IOWA
IOWA rushing ranks #10, MICH defends it at #34; the other way MICH #66 into IOWA's #14.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
MICH third-down conversion ranks #56, IOWA defends it at #10; the other way IOWA #93 into MICH's #35.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
IOWA
MICH +14.3 per game over the last five, IOWA +32.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
MICH
Consensus has MICH by 5.5; the model says MICH by 0.3.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MICH by 5.5 · model MICH by 0.3
Mkt MICH 5.5
Model MICH 0.3
-28028

11.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 38.5 · model 42.7
Mkt 38.5
Model 42.7
246096

7.4% of FBS games finish between 38.5 and 42.7 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: MICH · model disagrees
Opened
MICH -5
Pinnacle now
MICH -5.5(+0.8)
Retail now
MICH -5.5
Moves
19 across 7 books · 2 led

First sharp move Sun 1:56 PM: MICH -5 → MICH -5.5, 1 book followed within six hours; retail was still MICH -4.5.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model agrees
Opened
37.5
Pinnacle now
38.5(+0.8)
Retail now
38.5
Moves
25 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Sun 4:10 PM: 38 → 39, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 38.5.Steam Mon 5:01 PM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.