Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Sam Houston Bearkats
1-2
Model predicts
2 – 45
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Galaxy Stadium · 77° · 11 mph wind · Partly sunny
Texas Tech Red Raiders
3-0
Spread TTU -34.5 (opened TTU -37.5)Total 55.5Moneyline SHSU +4000 · TTU -300007 books · best SHSU +4000 fanduel · TTU -30000 fanduel
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
TTU -30000
98%
model margin TTU by 43.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
TTU -34.5
53%
8.5 pts from the number · best TTU -34 at betonlineag
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 55.5
53%
model total 46.5 · best under 56.5 at betonlineag

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: TTU rushing ranks #52, SHSU defends it at #111; the other way SHSU #131 into TTU's #74. The model lands on TTU by 43.0 against a market TTU by 34.5, so the spread lean is TTU by 8.5 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 46.5 against 55.5.

Who has the edge

Model: TTU by 43.0 · market TTU by 34.5
Passing game
Slight edge
SHSU
SHSU passing ranks #43, TTU defends it at #75; the other way TTU #27 into SHSU's #7.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
TTU
TTU rushing ranks #52, SHSU defends it at #111; the other way SHSU #131 into TTU's #74.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
SHSU
SHSU third-down conversion ranks #40, TTU defends it at #98; the other way TTU #29 into SHSU's #11.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
SHSU
TTU +12.0 per game over the last five, SHSU +16.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
TTU
Consensus has TTU by 34.5; the model says TTU by 43.0.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TTU by 34.5 · model TTU by 43.0
Mkt TTU 34.5
Model TTU 43.0
-28028

6.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 55.5 · model 46.5
Mkt 55.5
Model 46.5
246096

22.3% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 46.5 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: SHSU · model disagrees
Opened
TTU -37.5
Pinnacle now
TTU -34.25(-1.3)
Retail now
TTU -34.5
Moves
27 across 7 books · 7 led

First sharp move Sun 11:22 PM: TTU -35.5 → TTU -35, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still TTU -35.5.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model disagrees
Opened
55
Pinnacle now
56.3(+1.3)
Retail now
55.5+0.8 behind
Moves
13 across 7 books · 1 led

First sharp move Tue 9:32 AM: 55 → 56, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 54.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.