Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Texas A&M Aggies
2-1
Model predicts
24 – 28
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA) · 85° · Mostly sunny
LSU Tigers
2-1
Spread LSU -9.5 (opened LSU -3)Total 51.5Moneyline TA&M +289 · LSU -3657 books · best TA&M +300 hardrockbet · LSU -350 betmgm
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
LSU -365
59%
model margin LSU by 3.9
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
TA&M +9.5
52%
5.6 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 51.5
50%
model total 51.9
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has LSU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, TA&M. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: LSU rushing ranks #41, TA&M defends it at #7; the other way TA&M #94 into LSU's #6. The model lands on LSU by 3.9 against a market LSU by 9.5, so the spread lean is TA&M by 5.6 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: LSU by 3.9 · market LSU by 9.5
Passing game
Slight edge
LSU
LSU passing ranks #102, TA&M defends it at #67; the other way TA&M #89 into LSU's #22.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
LSU
LSU rushing ranks #41, TA&M defends it at #7; the other way TA&M #94 into LSU's #6.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
TA&M
LSU third-down conversion ranks #13, TA&M defends it at #7; the other way TA&M #57 into LSU's #40.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
LSU +21.3 per game over the last five, TA&M +22.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
LSU
Consensus has LSU by 9.5; the model says LSU by 3.9.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LSU by 9.5 · model LSU by 3.9
Mkt LSU 9.5
Model LSU 3.9
-28028

11.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 51.5 · model 51.9
Mkt 51.5
Model 51.9
246096

Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: TA&M · model agrees
Opened
LSU -6.5
Pinnacle now
LSU -9(-0.3)
Retail now
LSU -9.5-0.5 behind
Moves
25 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Sun 11:22 PM: LSU -9 → LSU -9.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still LSU -9.5.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model disagrees
Opened
54
Pinnacle now
52(-1)
Retail now
51.5+0.5 behind
Moves
14 across 7 books · 5 led

First sharp move Tue 1:20 PM: 52.5 → 52, 6 books followed within six hours; retail was still 52.5.Steam Tue 1:20 PM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.