Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Illinois Fighting Illini
2-1
Model predicts
16 – 34
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Ohio Stadium · 63° · Sunny
Ohio State Buckeyes
2-1
Spread OSU -27 (opened OSU -27.5)Total 53.5Moneyline ILL +1600 · OSU -50007 books · best ILL +1900 betmgm · OSU -4000 draftkings
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
OSU -5000
86%
model margin OSU by 18.9
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
ILL +27
53%
8.1 pts from the number · best ILL +27.5 at draftkings
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 53.5
51%
model total 50.0 · best under 54.5 at fanduel
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has OSU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, ILL. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: OSU passing ranks #19, ILL defends it at #79; the other way ILL #25 into OSU's #9. The model lands on OSU by 18.9 against a market OSU by 27, so the spread lean is ILL by 8.1 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 50.0 against 53.5.

Who has the edge

Model: OSU by 18.9 · market OSU by 27
Passing game
Clear edge
OSU
OSU passing ranks #19, ILL defends it at #79; the other way ILL #25 into OSU's #9.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
OSU
OSU rushing ranks #82, ILL defends it at #95; the other way ILL #76 into OSU's #24.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
ILL third-down conversion ranks #63, OSU defends it at #58; the other way OSU #104 into ILL's #61.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
OSU
OSU +36.0 per game over the last five, ILL +17.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
OSU
Consensus has OSU by 27; the model says OSU by 18.9.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OSU by 27 · model OSU by 18.9
Mkt OSU 27
Model OSU 18.9
-28028

9.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The market is on 27, a number 1.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 53.5 · model 50.0
Mkt 53.5
Model 50.0
246096

7.4% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 50.0 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: ILL · model agrees
Opened
OSU -27
Pinnacle now
OSU -27(-0.3)
Retail now
OSU -27.5-0.5 behind
Moves
8 across 7 books

First sharp move Mon 4:28 PM: OSU -27.5 → OSU -27, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still OSU -27.5.

Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
53
Pinnacle now
53.8(-0.3)
Retail now
53.5
Moves
10 across 7 books

First sharp move Tue 4:05 PM: 54 → 53.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 53.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.