The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
59%Fresno State BulldogsLean✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
FRES by 3.8market FRES by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.0 pointsmarket 47.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Fresno State Bulldogs at 59% to win, with the market at FRES by 4.
FRES has the advantage in passing: FRES passing ranks #25, SJSU defends it at #74; the other way SJSU #57 into FRES's #18.
FRES has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: FRES third-down conversion ranks #97, SJSU defends it at #87; the other way SJSU #119 into FRES's #39.
Form: FRES has the better last five games by 13.8 points a game (SJSU -2.4, FRES +11.4).
Home field is with SJSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it FRES by 3.8 against a market FRES by 4: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 47.0 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model FRES by 3.8 · market FRES by 4
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES passing ranks #25, SJSU defends it at #74; the other way SJSU #57 into FRES's #18.
Rushing game
=
Even
FRES rushing ranks #127, SJSU defends it at #58; the other way SJSU #122 into FRES's #33.
Third down & red zone
FRES
Slight advantage
FRES third-down conversion ranks #97, SJSU defends it at #87; the other way SJSU #119 into FRES's #39.
Big plays
FRES
Slight advantage
FRES rush explosiveness ranks #59, SJSU defends it at #31; the other way SJSU #110 into FRES's #36.
Pass protection & rush
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES sack rate ranks #20, SJSU defends it at #93; the other way SJSU #68 into FRES's #36.
Ball security
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES turnovers / game ranks #21, SJSU defends it at #79; the other way SJSU #93 into FRES's #4.
Form (last 5)
FRES
Clear advantage
SJSU −2.4 per game over the last five, FRES +11.4.
Market
FRES
Clear advantage
Consensus has FRES by 4; the model says FRES by 3.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket FRES by 4 · model FRES by 3.8
Mkt FRES 4
Model FRES 3.8
← FRES by 28tieSJSU by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 47.0
Mkt 47.5
Model 47.0
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 47.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: SJSUModel agrees
Opened
FRES -7.5
→
Market maker now
FRES -4
▲ 1.5 since open
→
Retail now
FRES -4
in line
8 moves7 books3 ledSteam Sat, Sep 19, 7:20 PM
Mon, Sep 14, 1:20 AM first sharp move: FRES -7 → FRES -6.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still FRES -7.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel agrees
Opened
52.5
→
Market maker now
49.3
▼ 1.5 since open
→
Retail now
47.5
1.8 behind
6 moves7 books3 led
Fri, Sep 18, 1:20 AM first sharp move: 50.5 → 50
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 52.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
