The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
90%BYU CougarsStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BYU by 22.4market BYU by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.4 pointsmarket 54.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has BYU Cougars at 90% to win, with the market at BYU by 17.5.
BYU has the advantage in rushing: BYU rushing ranks #2, CSU defends it at #129; the other way CSU #10 into BYU's #29.
BYU has the advantage in passing: BYU passing ranks #47, CSU defends it at #135; the other way CSU #45 into BYU's #26.
Counterpoint: big plays favours CSU. CSU pass explosiveness ranks #35, BYU defends it at #53; the other way BYU #125 into CSU's #57. The pick still lands on BYU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BYU has the better last five games by 24.2 points a game (CSU -1.2, BYU +23.0).
Home field is with CSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BYU by 22.4 against a market BYU by 17.5: 4.9 points of daylight in BYU's favour. The model's total is 51.4 against a line of 54.5: 3.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BYU by 22.4 · market BYU by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BYU
Clear advantage
BYU passing ranks #47, CSU defends it at #135; the other way CSU #45 into BYU's #26.
Rushing game
BYU
Clear advantage
BYU rushing ranks #2, CSU defends it at #129; the other way CSU #10 into BYU's #29.
Third down & red zone
BYU
Slight advantage
BYU points / scoring opportunity ranks #3, CSU defends it at #126; the other way CSU #17 into BYU's #75.
Big plays
CSU
Slight advantage
CSU pass explosiveness ranks #35, BYU defends it at #53; the other way BYU #125 into CSU's #57.
Pass protection & rush
BYU
Slight advantage
BYU sack rate ranks #28, CSU defends it at #111; the other way CSU #3 into BYU's #56.
Ball security
=
Even
BYU turnovers / game ranks #15, CSU defends it at #6; the other way CSU #35 into BYU's #24.
Form (last 5)
BYU
Clear advantage
CSU −1.2 per game over the last five, BYU +23.0.
Market
BYU
Clear advantage
Consensus has BYU by 17.5; the model says BYU by 22.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BYU by 17.5 · model BYU by 22.4
Mkt BYU 17.5
Model BYU 22.4
← BYU by 28tieCSU by 28 →
3.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 51.4
Mkt 54.5
Model 51.4
24 pts6096 pts
5.8% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 51.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
BYU -21
→
Market maker now
BYU -17.25
no move
→
Retail now
BYU -17.5
in line
6 moves7 books1 ledSteam Sat, Sep 19, 1:20 PM
Thu, Sep 17, 1:20 AM first sharp move: BYU -17 → BYU -17.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still BYU -21 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
52.5
→
Market maker now
55
▲ 2.5 since open
→
Retail now
54.5
0.5 behind
8 moves7 books1 ledSteam Sat, Sep 19, 7:20 PM
Sat, Sep 19, 6:20 PM first sharp move: 52 → 53
6 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 52.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
