The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
93%Notre Dame Fighting IrishStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ND by 25.2market ND by 28.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.1 pointsmarket 51.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 93% to win, with the market at ND by 28.5.
ND has the advantage in passing: ND passing ranks #9, MSU defends it at #99; the other way MSU #127 into ND's #24.
ND has the advantage in rushing: ND rushing ranks #32, MSU defends it at #92; the other way MSU #120 into ND's #7.
Form: ND has the better last five games by 34.4 points a game (ND +29.4, MSU -5.0).
Home field is with ND, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ND by 25.2 against a market ND by 28.5: 3.3 points of daylight in MSU's favour. The model's total is 58.1 against a line of 51.5: 6.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ND by 25.2 · market ND by 28.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ND
Clear advantage
ND passing ranks #9, MSU defends it at #99; the other way MSU #127 into ND's #24.
Rushing game
ND
Clear advantage
ND rushing ranks #32, MSU defends it at #92; the other way MSU #120 into ND's #7.
Third down & red zone
ND
Clear advantage
ND points / scoring opportunity ranks #7, MSU defends it at #92; the other way MSU #117 into ND's #12.
Big plays
ND
Clear advantage
ND pass explosiveness ranks #110, MSU defends it at #125; the other way MSU #127 into ND's #25.
Pass protection & rush
ND
Clear advantage
ND sack rate ranks #2, MSU defends it at #63; the other way MSU #122 into ND's #17.
Ball security
ND
Clear advantage
ND turnovers / game ranks #2, MSU defends it at #131; the other way MSU #64 into ND's #5.
Form (last 5)
ND
Clear advantage
ND +29.4 per game over the last five, MSU −5.0.
Market
ND
Clear advantage
Consensus has ND by 28.5; the model says ND by 25.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ND by 28.5 · model ND by 25.2
Mkt ND 28.5
Model ND 25.2
← MSU by 28tieND by 28 →
4.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 58.1
Mkt 51.5
Model 58.1
24 pts6096 pts
15.7% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 58.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
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Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
