The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
54%Oklahoma SoonersLean✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OU by 1.7market OU by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.2 pointsmarket 43.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oklahoma Sooners at 54% to win, with the market at OU by 5.5.
OU has the advantage in passing: OU passing ranks #60, MICH defends it at #14; the other way MICH #80 into OU's #6.
Counterpoint: rushing favours MICH. MICH rushing ranks #94, OU defends it at #28; the other way OU #136 into MICH's #19. The pick still lands on OU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with MICH, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it OU by 1.7 against a market OU by 5.5: 3.8 points of daylight in MICH's favour. The model's total is 43.2 against a line of 43.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OU by 1.7 · market OU by 5.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor MICH, but the model still picks OU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
OU
Slight advantage
OU passing ranks #60, MICH defends it at #14; the other way MICH #80 into OU's #6.
Rushing game
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH rushing ranks #94, OU defends it at #28; the other way OU #136 into MICH's #19.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
OU points / scoring opportunity ranks #98, MICH defends it at #3; the other way MICH #114 into OU's #4.
Big plays
=
Even
OU pass explosiveness ranks #27, MICH defends it at #92; the other way MICH #83 into OU's #6.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
OU sack rate ranks #93, MICH defends it at #27; the other way MICH #87 into OU's #1.
Ball security
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH turnovers / game ranks #112, OU defends it at #86; the other way OU #136 into MICH's #84.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
MICH +7.2 per game over the last five, OU +6.0.
Market
OU
Clear advantage
Consensus has OU by 5.5; the model says OU by 1.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OU by 5.5 · model OU by 1.7
Mkt OU 5.5
Model OU 1.7
← OU by 28tieMICH by 28 →
8.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 43.2
Mkt 43.5
Model 43.2
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: MICHModel agrees
Opened
MICH -1.5
→
Market maker now
OU -4.75
▲ 1.3 since open
→
Retail now
OU -5
in line
25 moves10 books0 led
Mon, Sep 7, 7:20 AM first sharp move: OU -6 → OU -5.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still OU -6.25 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
46.5
→
Market maker now
43.8
▲ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
43.5
in line
11 moves9 books1 led
Mon, Sep 7, 8:48 PM first sharp move: 43.5 → 44
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 43.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
