The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
64%Tennessee VolunteersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TENN by 6.2market TENN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.1 pointsmarket 62.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Volunteers at 64% to win, with the market at TENN by 3.
TENN has the advantage in rushing: TENN rushing ranks #7, ILL defends it at #57; the other way ILL #85 into TENN's #72.
TENN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TENN third-down conversion ranks #10, ILL defends it at #122; the other way ILL #43 into TENN's #89.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it TENN by 6.2 against a market TENN by 3: 3.2 points of daylight in TENN's favour. The model's total is 59.1 against a line of 62.5: 3.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TENN by 6.2 · market TENN by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN passing ranks #21, ILL defends it at #107; the other way ILL #15 into TENN's #59.
Rushing game
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN rushing ranks #7, ILL defends it at #57; the other way ILL #85 into TENN's #72.
Third down & red zone
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN third-down conversion ranks #10, ILL defends it at #122; the other way ILL #43 into TENN's #89.
Big plays
=
Even
TENN rush explosiveness ranks #65, ILL defends it at #41; the other way ILL #124 into TENN's #16.
Pass protection & rush
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN sack rate ranks #33, ILL defends it at #81; the other way ILL #115 into TENN's #54.
Ball security
=
Even
ILL turnovers / game ranks #11, TENN defends it at #37; the other way TENN #56 into ILL's #76.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
ILL +6.4 per game over the last five, TENN +4.8.
Market
TENN
Slight advantage
Consensus has TENN by 3; the model says TENN by 6.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TENN by 3 · model TENN by 6.2
Mkt TENN 3
Model TENN 6.2
← TENN by 28tieILL by 28 →
3.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 62.5 · model 59.1
Mkt 62.5
Model 59.1
24 pts6096 pts
5.5% of FBS games finish between 62.5 and 59.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
