The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Penn State Nittany LionsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PSU by 2.2market CLEM by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.2 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Penn State Nittany Lions at 55% to win, with the market at CLEM by 2.5.
PSU has the advantage in big plays: PSU pass explosiveness ranks #110, CLEM defends it at #118; the other way CLEM #97 into PSU's #26.
PSU has the advantage in rushing: PSU rushing ranks #28, CLEM defends it at #23; the other way CLEM #113 into PSU's #71.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it PSU by 2.2 against a market CLEM by 2.5: 4.7 points of daylight in PSU's favour. The model's total is 51.2 against a line of 47.5: 3.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PSU by 2.2 · market CLEM by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
PSU passing ranks #58, CLEM defends it at #46; the other way CLEM #56 into PSU's #32.
Rushing game
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU rushing ranks #28, CLEM defends it at #23; the other way CLEM #113 into PSU's #71.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
PSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #25, CLEM defends it at #9; the other way CLEM #59 into PSU's #37.
Big plays
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU pass explosiveness ranks #110, CLEM defends it at #118; the other way CLEM #97 into PSU's #26.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
CLEM sack rate ranks #31, PSU defends it at #24; the other way PSU #69 into CLEM's #41.
Ball security
=
Even
PSU turnovers / game ranks #7, CLEM defends it at #61; the other way CLEM #51 into PSU's #104.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
CLEM +10.4 per game over the last five, PSU +11.6.
Market
CLEM
Slight advantage
Consensus has CLEM by 2.5; the model says PSU by 2.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CLEM by 2.5 · model PSU by 2.2
Mkt CLEM 2.5
Model PSU 2.2
← PSU by 28tieCLEM by 28 →
5.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 51.2
Mkt 47.5
Model 51.2
24 pts6096 pts
10.5% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 51.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
