The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Missouri TigersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIZ by 5.9market MIZ by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.8 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Missouri Tigers at 63% to win, with the market at MIZ by 4.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours UVA. UVA turnovers / game ranks #36, MIZ defends it at #109; the other way MIZ #76 into UVA's #47. The pick still lands on MIZ because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: MIZ has 7 more days since its last game (MIZ 28d, UVA 21d).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it MIZ by 5.9 against a market MIZ by 4: 1.9 points of daylight in MIZ's favour. The model's total is 37.8 against a line of 43.5: 5.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIZ by 5.9 · market MIZ by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor UVA, but the model still picks MIZ. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
UVA passing ranks #66, MIZ defends it at #19; the other way MIZ #98 into UVA's #33.
Rushing game
=
Even
MIZ rushing ranks #18, UVA defends it at #42; the other way UVA #21 into MIZ's #33.
Third down & red zone
UVA
Slight advantage
UVA third-down conversion ranks #11, MIZ defends it at #38; the other way MIZ #30 into UVA's #2.
Big plays
UVA
Slight advantage
UVA pass explosiveness ranks #73, MIZ defends it at #81; the other way MIZ #114 into UVA's #44.
Pass protection & rush
UVA
Slight advantage
UVA sack rate ranks #10, MIZ defends it at #8; the other way MIZ #91 into UVA's #49.
Ball security
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA turnovers / game ranks #36, MIZ defends it at #109; the other way MIZ #76 into UVA's #47.
Form (last 5)
UVA
Slight advantage
MIZ −0.4 per game over the last five, UVA +5.8.
Market
MIZ
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIZ by 4; the model says MIZ by 5.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIZ by 4 · model MIZ by 5.9
Mkt MIZ 4
Model MIZ 5.9
← UVA by 28tieMIZ by 28 →
1.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 37.8
Mkt 43.5
Model 37.8
24 pts6096 pts
11.5% of FBS games finish between 43.5 and 37.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
