The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Northwestern WildcatsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NU by 3.3market NU by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.8 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Northwestern Wildcats at 58% to win, with the market at NU by 13.5.
Counterpoint: passing favours CMU. CMU passing ranks #25, NU defends it at #71; the other way NU #83 into CMU's #39. The pick still lands on NU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it NU by 3.3 against a market NU by 13.5: 10.2 points of daylight in CMU's favour. The model's total is 41.8 against a line of 43.5: 1.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NU by 3.3 · market NU by 13.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor CMU, but the model still picks NU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CMU
Clear advantage
CMU passing ranks #25, NU defends it at #71; the other way NU #83 into CMU's #39.
Rushing game
CMU
Clear advantage
CMU rushing ranks #82, NU defends it at #101; the other way NU #58 into CMU's #12.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NU third-down conversion ranks #37, CMU defends it at #87; the other way CMU #115 into NU's #99.
Big plays
CMU
Slight advantage
CMU rush explosiveness ranks #79, NU defends it at #88; the other way NU #93 into CMU's #29.
Pass protection & rush
NU
Clear advantage
NU sack rate ranks #40, CMU defends it at #85; the other way CMU #120 into NU's #74.
Ball security
CMU
Slight advantage
CMU turnovers / game ranks #64, NU defends it at #36; the other way NU #110 into CMU's #31.
Form (last 5)
NU
Slight advantage
NU 0.0 per game over the last five, CMU −3.4.
Market
NU
Clear advantage
Consensus has NU by 13.5; the model says NU by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NU by 13.5 · model NU by 3.3
Mkt NU 13.5
Model NU 3.3
← CMU by 28tieNU by 28 →
16.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 41.8
Mkt 43.5
Model 41.8
24 pts6096 pts
3.0% of FBS games finish between 43.5 and 41.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
