Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord FieldStadium scoring factor 85 (126th of 134, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 22 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
CMU offensevsNU defense
CMU offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · NU defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.33
#25Stronger
+0.17
#71
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.05
#82slight
+0.13
#101
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
34%
#115
42%
slight#99
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.60
#80
3.37
Stronger#41
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
15.5%
#69slight
15.0%
#84
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.23
#64
1.54
Stronger#36
NU offensevsCMU defense
NU offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · CMU defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.13
#83
+0.09
Stronger#39
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.10
#58
−0.06
Stronger#12
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
43%
#37Stronger
41%
#87
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 89 places
3.21
#115
3.14
Stronger#26
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.Widest gap · 53 places
16.7%
#95
16.9%
Stronger#42
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 79 places
1.62
#110
1.62
Stronger#31
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CMU offenseNU defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors CMU
+0.33#25▼
+0.17#71▲
Pass success ratefavors CMU
44%#42
44%#101
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors NU
1.61#40
1.36#6
Yards / pass attemptfavors CMU
8.6#17▼
7.3#77
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
10.8%#47
10.1%#72▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors NU
7.6%#120
5.6%#74
Completion %favors CMU
70%#8
64%#102
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors NU
5.1%#130▼
3.7%#14▼
NU offenseCMU defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors CMU
+0.13#83▲
+0.09#39▼
Pass success rate
42%#66
39%#43
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors CMU
1.50#96
1.55#62
Yards / pass attemptfavors CMU
6.4#110
6.7#48
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors CMU
8.5%#108
9.9%#67▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors NU
4.2%#40
5.3%#85
Completion %favors CMU
59%#96
58%#27
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors NU
2.4%#66
1.7%#109▼
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
Points in the 1st half:CMU scores 56% · allows 50%NU scores 48% · allows 48%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
CMUNUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
CMU9 games
Scored12.6
Allowed8.4
Pass share22%
15–28% · 232 plays
NU8 games
Scored14.6
Allowed6.3
Pass share34%
28–39% · 237 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
CMU1 game · small sample
Scored0.0
Allowed21.0
Pass share51%
37 plays · too few games for a range
NU3 games
Scored13.3
Allowed15.0
Pass share45%
31–59% · 91 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
CMU7 games
Scored6.6
Allowed15.9
Pass share43%
36–51% · 206 plays
NU6 games
Scored11.3
Allowed12.3
Pass share54%
45–64% · 206 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
CMUat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.6
3.0Q1
7.5
9.4Q2
12.1scored12.4allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.0
6.1Q3
4.4
6.2Q4
NUat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.8
2.2Q1
7.6
7.0Q2
12.4scored9.2allowedleague 14.6
1st half
6.4
4.8Q3
6.8
5.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CMUNU
7-6
Record
7-6
22.5
Points for / game
23.4
23.5
Points against / game
19.8
4-1 / 3-5
Home / road
6-2 / 1-4
L L W W L
Last 5
W L W L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
CMUNU
−8.8
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+5.8
0.111
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.074
-0.003
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.113
41% / 40%
Success rate (off / def)
43% / 45%
1.18 / 1.21
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.17 / 1.15
481
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
678
10%
Returning production
20%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CMUNU
3-12 · 20%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-13 · 19%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), CMU 25 games, NU 25. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0CMUseriesNU1
Avg total points
41.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025CMU 7 vs NU 34PlayoffsNU
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
