The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Oregon DucksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORE by 12.7market ORE by 20.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.2 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon Ducks at 77% to win, with the market at ORE by 20.5.
ORE has the advantage in big plays: ORE rush explosiveness ranks #37, JMU defends it at #118; the other way JMU #49 into ORE's #75.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours JMU. JMU third-down conversion ranks #17, ORE defends it at #53; the other way ORE #18 into JMU's #6. The pick still lands on ORE because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: ORE has 6 more days since its last game (ORE 21d, JMU 15d).
Form: JMU has the better last five games by 13.6 points a game (ORE +6.6, JMU +20.2).
Home field is with ORE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ORE by 12.7 against a market ORE by 20.5: 7.8 points of daylight in JMU's favour. The model's total is 53.2 against a line of 47.5: 5.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORE by 12.7 · market ORE by 20.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
ORE passing ranks #16, JMU defends it at #10; the other way JMU #48 into ORE's #27.
Rushing game
=
Even
JMU rushing ranks #22, ORE defends it at #37; the other way ORE #19 into JMU's #24.
Third down & red zone
JMU
Slight advantage
JMU third-down conversion ranks #17, ORE defends it at #53; the other way ORE #18 into JMU's #6.
Big plays
ORE
Slight advantage
ORE rush explosiveness ranks #37, JMU defends it at #118; the other way JMU #49 into ORE's #75.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ORE sack rate ranks #32, JMU defends it at #21; the other way JMU #80 into ORE's #63.
Ball security
ORE
Slight advantage
ORE turnovers / game ranks #34, JMU defends it at #78; the other way JMU #49 into ORE's #50.
Form (last 5)
JMU
Clear advantage
ORE +6.6 per game over the last five, JMU +20.2.
Market
ORE
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORE by 20.5; the model says ORE by 12.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORE by 20.5 · model ORE by 12.7
Mkt ORE 20.5
Model ORE 12.7
← JMU by 28tieORE by 28 →
10.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 53.2
Mkt 47.5
Model 53.2
24 pts6096 pts
14.3% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 53.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
