The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
64%Navy MidshipmenSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NAVY by 6.1market NAVY by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.3 pointsmarket 37.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Navy Midshipmen at 64% to win, with the market at NAVY by 6.5.
NAVY has the advantage in rushing: NAVY rushing ranks #8, ARMY defends it at #75; the other way ARMY #69 into NAVY's #59.
NAVY has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NAVY third-down conversion ranks #4, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into NAVY's #66.
Counterpoint: big plays favours ARMY. ARMY pass explosiveness ranks #1, NAVY defends it at #103; the other way NAVY #3 into ARMY's #38. The pick still lands on NAVY because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: NAVY has 2 more days since its last game (NAVY 16d, ARMY 14d).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it NAVY by 6.1 against a market NAVY by 6.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 40.3 against a line of 37.5: 2.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NAVY by 6.1 · market NAVY by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
ARMY passing ranks #28, NAVY defends it at #108; the other way NAVY #8 into ARMY's #78.
Rushing game
NAVY
Clear advantage
NAVY rushing ranks #8, ARMY defends it at #75; the other way ARMY #69 into NAVY's #59.
Third down & red zone
NAVY
Slight advantage
NAVY third-down conversion ranks #4, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into NAVY's #66.
Big plays
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY pass explosiveness ranks #1, NAVY defends it at #103; the other way NAVY #3 into ARMY's #38.
Pass protection & rush
NAVY
Clear advantage
NAVY sack rate ranks #20, ARMY defends it at #132; the other way ARMY #17 into NAVY's #40.
Ball security
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY turnovers / game ranks #10, NAVY defends it at #86; the other way NAVY #41 into ARMY's #74.
Form (last 5)
ARMY
Slight advantage
NAVY −0.4 per game over the last five, ARMY +5.4.
Market
NAVY
Clear advantage
Consensus has NAVY by 6.5; the model says NAVY by 6.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NAVY by 6.5 · model NAVY by 6.1
Mkt NAVY 6.5
Model NAVY 6.1
← ARMY by 28tieNAVY by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 37.5 · model 40.3
Mkt 37.5
Model 40.3
24 pts6096 pts
5.6% of FBS games finish between 37.5 and 40.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
