The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Western Michigan BroncosLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WMU by 1.0market WMU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.4 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Western Michigan Broncos at 52% to win, with the market at WMU by 2.5.
WMU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WMU third-down conversion ranks #62, M-OH defends it at #106; the other way M-OH #109 into WMU's #12.
WMU has the advantage in rushing: WMU rushing ranks #51, M-OH defends it at #47; the other way M-OH #86 into WMU's #31.
Counterpoint: big plays favours M-OH. M-OH pass explosiveness ranks #27, WMU defends it at #29; the other way WMU #119 into M-OH's #27. The pick still lands on WMU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: WMU has 4 more days since its last game (WMU 11d, M-OH 7d).
Form: WMU has the better last five games by 16.6 points a game (WMU +15.0, M-OH -1.6).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it WMU by 1.0 against a market WMU by 2.5: 1.5 points of daylight in M-OH's favour. The model's total is 47.4 against a line of 44.5: 2.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WMU by 1.0 · market WMU by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
WMU passing ranks #119, M-OH defends it at #48; the other way M-OH #106 into WMU's #11.
Rushing game
WMU
Slight advantage
WMU rushing ranks #51, M-OH defends it at #47; the other way M-OH #86 into WMU's #31.
Third down & red zone
WMU
Clear advantage
WMU third-down conversion ranks #62, M-OH defends it at #106; the other way M-OH #109 into WMU's #12.
Big plays
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH pass explosiveness ranks #27, WMU defends it at #29; the other way WMU #119 into M-OH's #27.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
WMU sack rate ranks #92, M-OH defends it at #23; the other way M-OH #95 into WMU's #7.
Ball security
=
Even
WMU turnovers / game ranks #38, M-OH defends it at #46; the other way M-OH #37 into WMU's #24.
Form (last 5)
WMU
Clear advantage
WMU +15.0 per game over the last five, M-OH −1.6.
Market
WMU
Slight advantage
Consensus has WMU by 2.5; the model says WMU by 1.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WMU by 2.5 · model WMU by 1.0
Mkt WMU 2.5
Model WMU 1.0
← M-OH by 28tieWMU by 28 →
1.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 47.4
Mkt 44.5
Model 47.4
24 pts6096 pts
6.7% of FBS games finish between 44.5 and 47.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
