The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%UNLV RebelsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UNLV by 3.3market BOIS by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.7 pointsmarket 59.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UNLV Rebels at 58% to win, with the market at BOIS by 6.
UNLV has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UNLV points / scoring opportunity ranks #18, BOIS defends it at #111; the other way BOIS #72 into UNLV's #79.
UNLV has the advantage in big plays: UNLV pass explosiveness ranks #50, BOIS defends it at #115; the other way BOIS #43 into UNLV's #68.
Home field is with BOIS, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it UNLV by 3.3 against a market BOIS by 6: 9.3 points of daylight in UNLV's favour. The model's total is 59.7 against a line of 59.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UNLV by 3.3 · market BOIS by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
BOIS passing ranks #81, UNLV defends it at #82; the other way UNLV #29 into BOIS's #9.
Rushing game
=
Even
UNLV rushing ranks #13, BOIS defends it at #105; the other way BOIS #43 into UNLV's #121.
Third down & red zone
UNLV
Slight advantage
UNLV points / scoring opportunity ranks #18, BOIS defends it at #111; the other way BOIS #72 into UNLV's #79.
Big plays
UNLV
Slight advantage
UNLV pass explosiveness ranks #50, BOIS defends it at #115; the other way BOIS #43 into UNLV's #68.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
UNLV sack rate ranks #59, BOIS defends it at #55; the other way BOIS #51 into UNLV's #27.
Ball security
UNLV
Slight advantage
UNLV turnovers / game ranks #61, BOIS defends it at #28; the other way BOIS #96 into UNLV's #22.
Form (last 5)
UNLV
Slight advantage
BOIS +1.6 per game over the last five, UNLV +6.4.
Market
BOIS
Clear advantage
Consensus has BOIS by 6; the model says UNLV by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BOIS by 6 · model UNLV by 3.3
Mkt BOIS 6
Model UNLV 3.3
← UNLV by 28tieBOIS by 28 →
18.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 2.8% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 59.5 · model 59.7
Mkt 59.5
Model 59.7
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
