The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
70%Fresno State BulldogsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
FRES by 9.0market FRES by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.4 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Fresno State Bulldogs at 70% to win, with the market at FRES by 3.
FRES has the advantage in passing: FRES passing ranks #71, SJSU defends it at #114; the other way SJSU #88 into FRES's #13.
FRES has the advantage in big plays: FRES rush explosiveness ranks #59, SJSU defends it at #24; the other way SJSU #110 into FRES's #6.
Form: FRES has the better last five games by 34.4 points a game (SJSU -19.4, FRES +15.0).
Home field is with SJSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it FRES by 9.0 against a market FRES by 3: 6.0 points of daylight in FRES's favour. The model's total is 48.4 against a line of 45.5: 2.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model FRES by 9.0 · market FRES by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES passing ranks #71, SJSU defends it at #114; the other way SJSU #88 into FRES's #13.
Rushing game
=
Even
SJSU rushing ranks #81, FRES defends it at #49; the other way FRES #110 into SJSU's #74.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
FRES points / scoring opportunity ranks #110, SJSU defends it at #107; the other way SJSU #129 into FRES's #33.
Big plays
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES rush explosiveness ranks #59, SJSU defends it at #24; the other way SJSU #110 into FRES's #6.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
FRES sack rate ranks #44, SJSU defends it at #109; the other way SJSU #1 into FRES's #46.
Ball security
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES turnovers / game ranks #102, SJSU defends it at #84; the other way SJSU #134 into FRES's #8.
Form (last 5)
FRES
Clear advantage
SJSU −19.4 per game over the last five, FRES +15.0.
Market
FRES
Slight advantage
Consensus has FRES by 3; the model says FRES by 9.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket FRES by 3 · model FRES by 9.0
Mkt FRES 3
Model FRES 9.0
← FRES by 28tieSJSU by 28 →
8.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 48.4
Mkt 45.5
Model 48.4
24 pts6096 pts
6.6% of FBS games finish between 45.5 and 48.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
