The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%UTSA RoadrunnersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UTSA by 7.4market UTSA by 8.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.0 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UTSA Roadrunners at 67% to win, with the market at UTSA by 8.5.
UTSA has the advantage in rushing: UTSA rushing ranks #27, ARMY defends it at #75; the other way ARMY #69 into UTSA's #79.
UTSA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UTSA third-down conversion ranks #71, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into UTSA's #29.
Counterpoint: big plays favours ARMY. ARMY pass explosiveness ranks #1, UTSA defends it at #130; the other way UTSA #95 into ARMY's #38. The pick still lands on UTSA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with UTSA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UTSA by 7.4 against a market UTSA by 8.5: 1.1 points of daylight in ARMY's favour. The model's total is 49.0 against a line of 50.5: 1.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UTSA by 7.4 · market UTSA by 8.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
ARMY passing ranks #28, UTSA defends it at #81; the other way UTSA #47 into ARMY's #78.
Rushing game
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA rushing ranks #27, ARMY defends it at #75; the other way ARMY #69 into UTSA's #79.
Third down & red zone
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA third-down conversion ranks #71, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into UTSA's #29.
Big plays
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY pass explosiveness ranks #1, UTSA defends it at #130; the other way UTSA #95 into ARMY's #38.
Pass protection & rush
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA sack rate ranks #23, ARMY defends it at #132; the other way ARMY #17 into UTSA's #80.
Ball security
=
Even
UTSA turnovers / game ranks #20, ARMY defends it at #74; the other way ARMY #10 into UTSA's #57.
Form (last 5)
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA +11.4 per game over the last five, ARMY +5.4.
Market
UTSA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UTSA by 8.5; the model says UTSA by 7.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTSA by 8.5 · model UTSA by 7.4
Mkt UTSA 8.5
Model UTSA 7.4
← ARMY by 28tieUTSA by 28 →
1.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 49.0
Mkt 50.5
Model 49.0
24 pts6096 pts
3.7% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 49.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
