The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
89%Miami (OH) RedHawksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
M-OH by 21.4market M-OH by 16.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.4 pointsmarket 40.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami (OH) RedHawks at 89% to win, with the market at M-OH by 16.5.
M-OH has the advantage in passing: M-OH passing ranks #106, BALL defends it at #94; the other way BALL #130 into M-OH's #48.
M-OH has the advantage in rushing: M-OH rushing ranks #86, BALL defends it at #91; the other way BALL #102 into M-OH's #47.
Rest: M-OH has 3 more days since its last game (M-OH 10d, BALL 7d).
Form: M-OH has the better last five games by 13.4 points a game (M-OH -1.6, BALL -15.0).
Home field is with M-OH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it M-OH by 21.4 against a market M-OH by 16.5: 4.9 points of daylight in M-OH's favour. The model's total is 42.4 against a line of 40.5: 1.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model M-OH by 21.4 · market M-OH by 16.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH passing ranks #106, BALL defends it at #94; the other way BALL #130 into M-OH's #48.
Rushing game
M-OH
Slight advantage
M-OH rushing ranks #86, BALL defends it at #91; the other way BALL #102 into M-OH's #47.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
M-OH points / scoring opportunity ranks #106, BALL defends it at #59; the other way BALL #131 into M-OH's #45.
Big plays
=
Even
M-OH pass explosiveness ranks #27, BALL defends it at #71; the other way BALL #64 into M-OH's #27.
Pass protection & rush
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH sack rate ranks #95, BALL defends it at #98; the other way BALL #134 into M-OH's #23.
Ball security
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH turnovers / game ranks #37, BALL defends it at #92; the other way BALL #80 into M-OH's #46.
Form (last 5)
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH −1.6 per game over the last five, BALL −15.0.
Market
M-OH
Clear advantage
Consensus has M-OH by 16.5; the model says M-OH by 21.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket M-OH by 16.5 · model M-OH by 21.4
Mkt M-OH 16.5
Model M-OH 21.4
← BALL by 28tieM-OH by 28 →
7.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 40.5 · model 42.4
Mkt 40.5
Model 42.4
24 pts6096 pts
4.5% of FBS games finish between 40.5 and 42.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
