The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Tennessee VolunteersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TENN by 2.1market TENN by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
73.4 pointsmarket 66.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Volunteers at 55% to win, with the market at TENN by 2.5.
TENN has the advantage in passing: TENN passing ranks #21, VAN defends it at #118; the other way VAN #1 into TENN's #59.
Counterpoint: rushing favours VAN. VAN rushing ranks #2, TENN defends it at #72; the other way TENN #7 into VAN's #29. The pick still lands on TENN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with TENN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TENN by 2.1 against a market TENN by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 73.4 against a line of 66.5: 6.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TENN by 2.1 · market TENN by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN passing ranks #21, VAN defends it at #118; the other way VAN #1 into TENN's #59.
Rushing game
VAN
Slight advantage
VAN rushing ranks #2, TENN defends it at #72; the other way TENN #7 into VAN's #29.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
VAN points / scoring opportunity ranks #3, TENN defends it at #109; the other way TENN #9 into VAN's #90.
Big plays
=
Even
TENN pass explosiveness ranks #56, VAN defends it at #75; the other way VAN #74 into TENN's #53.
Pass protection & rush
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN sack rate ranks #33, VAN defends it at #79; the other way VAN #74 into TENN's #54.
Ball security
=
Even
TENN turnovers / game ranks #56, VAN defends it at #91; the other way VAN #21 into TENN's #37.
Form (last 5)
VAN
Slight advantage
TENN +4.8 per game over the last five, VAN +9.2.
Market
TENN
Slight advantage
Consensus has TENN by 2.5; the model says TENN by 2.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TENN by 2.5 · model TENN by 2.1
Mkt TENN 2.5
Model TENN 2.1
← VAN by 28tieTENN by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 66.5 · model 73.4
Mkt 66.5
Model 73.4
24 pts6096 pts
9.4% of FBS games finish between 66.5 and 73.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
