The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Boise State BroncosLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BOIS by 0.9market BOIS by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.3 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Boise State Broncos at 52% to win, with the market at BOIS by 1.5.
Counterpoint: big plays favours USU. USU pass explosiveness ranks #67, BOIS defends it at #115; the other way BOIS #43 into USU's #24. The pick still lands on BOIS because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with USU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BOIS by 0.9 against a market BOIS by 1.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 58.3 against a line of 54.5: 3.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BOIS by 0.9 · market BOIS by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor USU, but the model still picks BOIS. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
BOIS passing ranks #81, USU defends it at #60; the other way USU #51 into BOIS's #9.
Rushing game
=
Even
BOIS rushing ranks #43, USU defends it at #115; the other way USU #38 into BOIS's #105.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BOIS third-down conversion ranks #26, USU defends it at #83; the other way USU #112 into BOIS's #22.
Big plays
USU
Clear advantage
USU pass explosiveness ranks #67, BOIS defends it at #115; the other way BOIS #43 into USU's #24.
Pass protection & rush
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS sack rate ranks #51, USU defends it at #70; the other way USU #125 into BOIS's #55.
Ball security
USU
Slight advantage
USU turnovers / game ranks #14, BOIS defends it at #28; the other way BOIS #96 into USU's #64.
Form (last 5)
USU
Slight advantage
USU +6.2 per game over the last five, BOIS +1.6.
Market
BOIS
Slight advantage
Consensus has BOIS by 1.5; the model says BOIS by 0.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BOIS by 1.5 · model BOIS by 0.9
Mkt BOIS 1.5
Model BOIS 0.9
← BOIS by 28tieUSU by 28 →
1.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 58.3
Mkt 54.5
Model 58.3
24 pts6096 pts
9.9% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 58.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
