The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%Colorado State RamsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CSU by 0.0market AFA by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.4 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Colorado State Rams at 50% to win, with the market at AFA by 2.5.
Counterpoint: passing favours AFA. AFA passing ranks #6, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into AFA's #135. The pick still lands on CSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: AFA has the better last five games by 22.6 points a game (CSU -22.4, AFA +0.2).
Home field is with CSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CSU by 0.0 against a market AFA by 2.5: 2.5 points of daylight in CSU's favour. The model's total is 46.4 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CSU by 0.0 · market AFA by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor AFA, but the model still picks CSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
AFA
Clear advantage
AFA passing ranks #6, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into AFA's #135.
Rushing game
=
Even
AFA rushing ranks #17, CSU defends it at #87; the other way CSU #87 into AFA's #135.
Third down & red zone
AFA
Clear advantage
AFA third-down conversion ranks #7, CSU defends it at #130; the other way CSU #122 into AFA's #134.
Big plays
AFA
Slight advantage
AFA pass explosiveness ranks #2, CSU defends it at #122; the other way CSU #90 into AFA's #32.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
CSU sack rate ranks #111, AFA defends it at #111; the other way AFA #104 into CSU's #104.
Ball security
AFA
Slight advantage
AFA turnovers / game ranks #27, CSU defends it at #60; the other way CSU #115 into AFA's #115.
Form (last 5)
AFA
Clear advantage
CSU −22.4 per game over the last five, AFA +0.2.
Market
AFA
Slight advantage
Consensus has AFA by 2.5; the model says CSU by 0.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket AFA by 2.5 · model CSU by 0.0
Mkt AFA 2.5
Model CSU 0.0
← AFA by 28tieCSU by 28 →
2.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 46.4
Mkt 47.5
Model 46.4
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 46.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
