The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%North Texas Mean GreenStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UNT by 12.7market UNT by 18.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
60.5 pointsmarket 57.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Texas Mean Green at 77% to win, with the market at UNT by 18.5.
UNT has the advantage in passing: UNT passing ranks #14, RICE defends it at #115; the other way RICE #121 into UNT's #29.
UNT has the advantage in rushing: UNT rushing ranks #3, RICE defends it at #107; the other way RICE #92 into UNT's #88.
Rest: RICE has 7 more days since its last game (RICE 14d, UNT 7d).
Form: UNT has the better last five games by 41.2 points a game (RICE -25.8, UNT +15.4).
Home field is with RICE, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it UNT by 12.7 against a market UNT by 18.5: 5.8 points of daylight in RICE's favour. The model's total is 60.5 against a line of 57.5: 3.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UNT by 12.7 · market UNT by 18.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT passing ranks #14, RICE defends it at #115; the other way RICE #121 into UNT's #29.
Rushing game
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT rushing ranks #3, RICE defends it at #107; the other way RICE #92 into UNT's #88.
Third down & red zone
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT third-down conversion ranks #24, RICE defends it at #114; the other way RICE #116 into UNT's #105.
Big plays
UNT
Slight advantage
UNT rush explosiveness ranks #26, RICE defends it at #132; the other way RICE #50 into UNT's #91.
Pass protection & rush
UNT
Slight advantage
UNT sack rate ranks #25, RICE defends it at #42; the other way RICE #122 into UNT's #96.
Ball security
UNT
Slight advantage
UNT turnovers / game ranks #84, RICE defends it at #132; the other way RICE #12 into UNT's #6.
Form (last 5)
UNT
Clear advantage
RICE −25.8 per game over the last five, UNT +15.4.
Market
UNT
Clear advantage
Consensus has UNT by 18.5; the model says UNT by 12.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNT by 18.5 · model UNT by 12.7
Mkt UNT 18.5
Model UNT 12.7
← UNT by 28tieRICE by 28 →
5.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 57.5 · model 60.5
Mkt 57.5
Model 60.5
24 pts6096 pts
6.7% of FBS games finish between 57.5 and 60.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
