The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
84%Boise State BroncosStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BOIS by 16.9market BOIS by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.7 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Boise State Broncos at 84% to win, with the market at BOIS by 17.5.
BOIS has the advantage in passing: BOIS passing ranks #81, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into BOIS's #9.
BOIS has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BOIS third-down conversion ranks #26, CSU defends it at #130; the other way CSU #122 into BOIS's #22.
Form: BOIS has the better last five games by 24.0 points a game (BOIS +1.6, CSU -22.4).
Home field is with BOIS, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BOIS by 16.9 against a market BOIS by 17.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 39.7 against a line of 45.5: 5.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BOIS by 16.9 · market BOIS by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS passing ranks #81, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into BOIS's #9.
Rushing game
BOIS
Slight advantage
BOIS rushing ranks #43, CSU defends it at #87; the other way CSU #87 into BOIS's #105.
Third down & red zone
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS third-down conversion ranks #26, CSU defends it at #130; the other way CSU #122 into BOIS's #22.
Big plays
=
Even
BOIS pass explosiveness ranks #43, CSU defends it at #122; the other way CSU #90 into BOIS's #115.
Pass protection & rush
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS sack rate ranks #51, CSU defends it at #104; the other way CSU #111 into BOIS's #55.
Ball security
BOIS
Slight advantage
BOIS turnovers / game ranks #96, CSU defends it at #60; the other way CSU #115 into BOIS's #28.
Form (last 5)
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS +1.6 per game over the last five, CSU −22.4.
Market
BOIS
Clear advantage
Consensus has BOIS by 17.5; the model says BOIS by 16.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BOIS by 17.5 · model BOIS by 16.9
Mkt BOIS 17.5
Model BOIS 16.9
← CSU by 28tieBOIS by 28 →
2.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 39.7
Mkt 45.5
Model 39.7
24 pts6096 pts
13.7% of FBS games finish between 45.5 and 39.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
