The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
64%New Mexico LobosSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UNM by 6.1market UNM by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.8 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New Mexico Lobos at 64% to win, with the market at UNM by 3.5.
UNM has the advantage in rushing: UNM rushing ranks #59, AFA defends it at #135; the other way AFA #17 into UNM's #28.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours AFA. AFA turnovers / game ranks #27, UNM defends it at #62; the other way UNM #123 into AFA's #115. The pick still lands on UNM because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with AFA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it UNM by 6.1 against a market UNM by 3.5: 2.6 points of daylight in UNM's favour. The model's total is 55.8 against a line of 52.5: 3.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UNM by 6.1 · market UNM by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
AFA passing ranks #6, UNM defends it at #57; the other way UNM #90 into AFA's #135.
Rushing game
UNM
Clear advantage
UNM rushing ranks #59, AFA defends it at #135; the other way AFA #17 into UNM's #28.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
UNM points / scoring opportunity ranks #57, AFA defends it at #121; the other way AFA #12 into UNM's #17.
Big plays
=
Even
AFA pass explosiveness ranks #2, UNM defends it at #36; the other way UNM #57 into AFA's #32.
Pass protection & rush
UNM
Clear advantage
UNM sack rate ranks #124, AFA defends it at #111; the other way AFA #104 into UNM's #15.
Ball security
AFA
Slight advantage
AFA turnovers / game ranks #27, UNM defends it at #62; the other way UNM #123 into AFA's #115.
Form (last 5)
UNM
Slight advantage
AFA +0.2 per game over the last five, UNM +5.6.
Market
UNM
Clear advantage
Consensus has UNM by 3.5; the model says UNM by 6.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNM by 3.5 · model UNM by 6.1
Mkt UNM 3.5
Model UNM 6.1
← UNM by 28tieAFA by 28 →
3.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 55.8
Mkt 52.5
Model 55.8
24 pts6096 pts
6.9% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 55.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
