The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%East Carolina PiratesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ECU by 2.6market ECU by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
60.9 pointsmarket 62.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has East Carolina Pirates at 56% to win, with the market at ECU by 1.5.
ECU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: ECU third-down conversion ranks #15, UTSA defends it at #29; the other way UTSA #71 into ECU's #9.
ECU has the advantage in passing: ECU passing ranks #30, UTSA defends it at #81; the other way UTSA #47 into ECU's #51.
Home field is with UTSA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ECU by 2.6 against a market ECU by 1.5: 1.1 points of daylight in ECU's favour. The model's total is 60.9 against a line of 62.5: 1.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ECU by 2.6 · market ECU by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ECU
Slight advantage
ECU passing ranks #30, UTSA defends it at #81; the other way UTSA #47 into ECU's #51.
Rushing game
=
Even
ECU rushing ranks #80, UTSA defends it at #79; the other way UTSA #27 into ECU's #8.
Third down & red zone
ECU
Clear advantage
ECU third-down conversion ranks #15, UTSA defends it at #29; the other way UTSA #71 into ECU's #9.
Big plays
=
Even
UTSA rush explosiveness ranks #5, ECU defends it at #115; the other way ECU #129 into UTSA's #70.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ECU sack rate ranks #21, UTSA defends it at #80; the other way UTSA #23 into ECU's #69.
Ball security
=
Even
ECU turnovers / game ranks #42, UTSA defends it at #57; the other way UTSA #20 into ECU's #14.
Form (last 5)
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA +11.4 per game over the last five, ECU +8.2.
Market
ECU
Slight advantage
Consensus has ECU by 1.5; the model says ECU by 2.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ECU by 1.5 · model ECU by 2.6
Mkt ECU 1.5
Model ECU 2.6
← ECU by 28tieUTSA by 28 →
1.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 62.5 · model 60.9
Mkt 62.5
Model 60.9
24 pts6096 pts
4.6% of FBS games finish between 62.5 and 60.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
