The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
91%Toledo RocketsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TOL by 23.6market TOL by 29.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.5 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Toledo Rockets at 91% to win, with the market at TOL by 29.5.
TOL has the advantage in passing: TOL passing ranks #59, BALL defends it at #94; the other way BALL #130 into TOL's #3.
TOL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TOL third-down conversion ranks #64, BALL defends it at #100; the other way BALL #119 into TOL's #5.
Rest: TOL has 3 more days since its last game (TOL 10d, BALL 7d).
Form: TOL has the better last five games by 35.4 points a game (TOL +20.4, BALL -15.0).
Home field is with TOL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TOL by 23.6 against a market TOL by 29.5: 5.9 points of daylight in BALL's favour. The model's total is 40.5 against a line of 45.5: 5.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TOL by 23.6 · market TOL by 29.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL passing ranks #59, BALL defends it at #94; the other way BALL #130 into TOL's #3.
Rushing game
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL rushing ranks #63, BALL defends it at #91; the other way BALL #102 into TOL's #19.
Third down & red zone
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL third-down conversion ranks #64, BALL defends it at #100; the other way BALL #119 into TOL's #5.
Big plays
=
Even
BALL pass explosiveness ranks #64, TOL defends it at #107; the other way TOL #62 into BALL's #71.
Pass protection & rush
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL sack rate ranks #9, BALL defends it at #98; the other way BALL #134 into TOL's #1.
Ball security
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL turnovers / game ranks #50, BALL defends it at #92; the other way BALL #80 into TOL's #29.
Form (last 5)
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL +20.4 per game over the last five, BALL −15.0.
Market
TOL
Clear advantage
Consensus has TOL by 29.5; the model says TOL by 23.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TOL by 29.5 · model TOL by 23.6
Mkt TOL 29.5
Model TOL 23.6
← BALL by 28tieTOL by 28 →
8.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 40.5
Mkt 45.5
Model 40.5
24 pts6096 pts
11.5% of FBS games finish between 45.5 and 40.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
