The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Houston CougarsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 0.4market TCU by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.0 pointsmarket 56.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Cougars at 51% to win, with the market at TCU by 1.5.
HOU has the advantage in big plays: HOU pass explosiveness ranks #16, TCU defends it at #110; the other way TCU #35 into HOU's #52.
Counterpoint: rushing favours TCU. TCU rushing ranks #84, HOU defends it at #48; the other way HOU #125 into TCU's #40. The pick still lands on HOU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: HOU has 8 more days since its last game (HOU 15d, TCU 7d).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 0.4 against a market TCU by 1.5: 1.9 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 55.0 against a line of 56.5: 1.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 0.4 · market TCU by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
HOU passing ranks #42, TCU defends it at #91; the other way TCU #18 into HOU's #54.
Rushing game
TCU
Slight advantage
TCU rushing ranks #84, HOU defends it at #48; the other way HOU #125 into TCU's #40.
Third down & red zone
TCU
Slight advantage
TCU points / scoring opportunity ranks #34, HOU defends it at #94; the other way HOU #83 into TCU's #54.
Big plays
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU pass explosiveness ranks #16, TCU defends it at #110; the other way TCU #35 into HOU's #52.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #30, TCU defends it at #82; the other way TCU #38 into HOU's #50.
Ball security
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #39, TCU defends it at #33; the other way TCU #103 into HOU's #51.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
HOU 0.0 per game over the last five, TCU −1.2.
Market
TCU
Slight advantage
Consensus has TCU by 1.5; the model says HOU by 0.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TCU by 1.5 · model HOU by 0.4
Mkt TCU 1.5
Model HOU 0.4
← TCU by 28tieHOU by 28 →
1.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 55.0
Mkt 56.5
Model 55.0
24 pts6096 pts
5.1% of FBS games finish between 56.5 and 55.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
