The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Michigan WolverinesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MICH by 12.7market MICH by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.9 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Michigan Wolverines at 77% to win, with the market at MICH by 14.
MICH has the advantage in rushing: MICH rushing ranks #15, MD defends it at #89; the other way MD #93 into MICH's #45.
MICH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MICH third-down conversion ranks #32, MD defends it at #102; the other way MD #99 into MICH's #52.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours MD. MD sack rate ranks #2, MICH defends it at #51; the other way MICH #76 into MD's #66. The pick still lands on MICH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: MICH has the better last five games by 22.6 points a game (MD -22.6, MICH +0.0).
Home field is with MD, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MICH by 12.7 against a market MICH by 14: 1.3 points of daylight in MD's favour. The model's total is 39.9 against a line of 46.5: 6.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MICH by 12.7 · market MICH by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MD
Slight advantage
MD passing ranks #72, MICH defends it at #55; the other way MICH #95 into MD's #25.
Rushing game
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH rushing ranks #15, MD defends it at #89; the other way MD #93 into MICH's #45.
Third down & red zone
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH third-down conversion ranks #32, MD defends it at #102; the other way MD #99 into MICH's #52.
Big plays
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH pass explosiveness ranks #106, MD defends it at #74; the other way MD #99 into MICH's #3.
Pass protection & rush
MD
Slight advantage
MD sack rate ranks #2, MICH defends it at #51; the other way MICH #76 into MD's #66.
Ball security
MD
Slight advantage
MD turnovers / game ranks #60, MICH defends it at #42; the other way MICH #75 into MD's #20.
Form (last 5)
MICH
Clear advantage
MD −22.6 per game over the last five, MICH 0.0.
Market
MICH
Clear advantage
Consensus has MICH by 14; the model says MICH by 12.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MICH by 14 · model MICH by 12.7
Mkt MICH 14
Model MICH 12.7
← MICH by 28tieMD by 28 →
1.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 4.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 39.9
Mkt 46.5
Model 39.9
24 pts6096 pts
15.0% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 39.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
