The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
70%BYU CougarsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BYU by 8.8market BYU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.3 pointsmarket 56.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has BYU Cougars at 70% to win, with the market at BYU by 2.5.
BYU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BYU third-down conversion ranks #49, CIN defends it at #94; the other way CIN #81 into BYU's #20.
BYU has the advantage in rushing: BYU rushing ranks #25, CIN defends it at #116; the other way CIN #14 into BYU's #54.
Counterpoint: big plays favours CIN. CIN rush explosiveness ranks #43, BYU defends it at #81; the other way BYU #71 into CIN's #49. The pick still lands on BYU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BYU has the better last five games by 26.6 points a game (CIN -18.6, BYU +8.0).
Home field is with CIN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BYU by 8.8 against a market BYU by 2.5: 6.3 points of daylight in BYU's favour. The model's total is 53.3 against a line of 56.5: 3.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BYU by 8.8 · market BYU by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
CIN passing ranks #13, BYU defends it at #45; the other way BYU #63 into CIN's #89.
Rushing game
BYU
Slight advantage
BYU rushing ranks #25, CIN defends it at #116; the other way CIN #14 into BYU's #54.
Third down & red zone
BYU
Clear advantage
BYU third-down conversion ranks #49, CIN defends it at #94; the other way CIN #81 into BYU's #20.
Big plays
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN rush explosiveness ranks #43, BYU defends it at #81; the other way BYU #71 into CIN's #49.
Pass protection & rush
BYU
Slight advantage
BYU sack rate ranks #6, CIN defends it at #101; the other way CIN #3 into BYU's #68.
Ball security
BYU
Clear advantage
BYU turnovers / game ranks #48, CIN defends it at #120; the other way CIN #40 into BYU's #21.
Form (last 5)
BYU
Clear advantage
CIN −18.6 per game over the last five, BYU +8.0.
Market
BYU
Slight advantage
Consensus has BYU by 2.5; the model says BYU by 8.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BYU by 2.5 · model BYU by 8.8
Mkt BYU 2.5
Model BYU 8.8
← BYU by 28tieCIN by 28 →
12.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 53.3
Mkt 56.5
Model 53.3
24 pts6096 pts
7.1% of FBS games finish between 56.5 and 53.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
