The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Oregon DucksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORE by 11.9market ORE by 10.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.5 pointsmarket 59.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon Ducks at 76% to win, with the market at ORE by 10.5.
ORE has the advantage in rushing: ORE rushing ranks #19, USC defends it at #84; the other way USC #37 into ORE's #37.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours USC. USC sack rate ranks #4, ORE defends it at #63; the other way ORE #32 into USC's #37. The pick still lands on ORE because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with ORE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ORE by 11.9 against a market ORE by 10.5: 1.4 points of daylight in ORE's favour. The model's total is 58.5 against a line of 59.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORE by 11.9 · market ORE by 10.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
USC passing ranks #3, ORE defends it at #27; the other way ORE #16 into USC's #38.
Rushing game
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE rushing ranks #19, USC defends it at #84; the other way USC #37 into ORE's #37.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
USC points / scoring opportunity ranks #10, ORE defends it at #92; the other way ORE #36 into USC's #56.
Big plays
=
Even
USC rush explosiveness ranks #70, ORE defends it at #75; the other way ORE #37 into USC's #10.
Pass protection & rush
USC
Slight advantage
USC sack rate ranks #4, ORE defends it at #63; the other way ORE #32 into USC's #37.
Ball security
ORE
Slight advantage
ORE turnovers / game ranks #34, USC defends it at #55; the other way USC #66 into ORE's #50.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
ORE +6.6 per game over the last five, USC +5.4.
Market
ORE
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORE by 10.5; the model says ORE by 11.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORE by 10.5 · model ORE by 11.9
Mkt ORE 10.5
Model ORE 11.9
← USC by 28tieORE by 28 →
1.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 59.5 · model 58.5
Mkt 59.5
Model 58.5
24 pts6096 pts
3.1% of FBS games finish between 59.5 and 58.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
