The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Miami (OH) RedHawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
M-OH by 2.9market M-OH by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.5 pointsmarket 38.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami (OH) RedHawks at 57% to win, with the market at M-OH by 2.5.
M-OH has the advantage in big plays: M-OH pass explosiveness ranks #27, BUFF defends it at #97; the other way BUFF #100 into M-OH's #27.
M-OH has the advantage in rushing: M-OH rushing ranks #86, BUFF defends it at #30; the other way BUFF #129 into M-OH's #47.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours BUFF. BUFF third-down conversion ranks #103, M-OH defends it at #106; the other way M-OH #109 into BUFF's #27. The pick still lands on M-OH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with BUFF, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it M-OH by 2.9 against a market M-OH by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 42.5 against a line of 38.5: 4.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model M-OH by 2.9 · market M-OH by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
M-OH passing ranks #106, BUFF defends it at #70; the other way BUFF #96 into M-OH's #48.
Rushing game
M-OH
Slight advantage
M-OH rushing ranks #86, BUFF defends it at #30; the other way BUFF #129 into M-OH's #47.
Third down & red zone
BUFF
Clear advantage
BUFF third-down conversion ranks #103, M-OH defends it at #106; the other way M-OH #109 into BUFF's #27.
Big plays
M-OH
Slight advantage
M-OH pass explosiveness ranks #27, BUFF defends it at #97; the other way BUFF #100 into M-OH's #27.
Pass protection & rush
BUFF
Slight advantage
BUFF sack rate ranks #49, M-OH defends it at #23; the other way M-OH #95 into BUFF's #10.
Ball security
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH turnovers / game ranks #37, BUFF defends it at #67; the other way BUFF #125 into M-OH's #46.
Form (last 5)
M-OH
Slight advantage
BUFF −4.8 per game over the last five, M-OH −1.6.
Market
M-OH
Slight advantage
Consensus has M-OH by 2.5; the model says M-OH by 2.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket M-OH by 2.5 · model M-OH by 2.9
Mkt M-OH 2.5
Model M-OH 2.9
← M-OH by 28tieBUFF by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 38.5 · model 42.5
Mkt 38.5
Model 42.5
24 pts6096 pts
7.5% of FBS games finish between 38.5 and 42.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
