The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
78%Missouri TigersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIZ by 13.4market MIZ by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.0 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Missouri Tigers at 78% to win, with the market at MIZ by 7.5.
MIZ has the advantage in rushing: MIZ rushing ranks #18, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #74 into MIZ's #33.
MIZ has the advantage in passing: MIZ passing ranks #98, MSST defends it at #87; the other way MSST #78 into MIZ's #19.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours MSST. MSST turnovers / game ranks #53, MIZ defends it at #109; the other way MIZ #76 into MSST's #53. The pick still lands on MIZ because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: MIZ has the better last five games by 14.0 points a game (MIZ -0.4, MSST -14.4).
Home field is with MIZ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIZ by 13.4 against a market MIZ by 7.5: 5.9 points of daylight in MIZ's favour. The model's total is 56.0 against a line of 50.5: 5.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIZ by 13.4 · market MIZ by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIZ
Slight advantage
MIZ passing ranks #98, MSST defends it at #87; the other way MSST #78 into MIZ's #19.
Rushing game
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ rushing ranks #18, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #74 into MIZ's #33.
Third down & red zone
MIZ
Slight advantage
MIZ third-down conversion ranks #30, MSST defends it at #96; the other way MSST #38 into MIZ's #38.
Big plays
=
Even
MSST pass explosiveness ranks #18, MIZ defends it at #81; the other way MIZ #114 into MSST's #123.
Pass protection & rush
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ sack rate ranks #91, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #128 into MIZ's #8.
Ball security
MSST
Clear advantage
MSST turnovers / game ranks #53, MIZ defends it at #109; the other way MIZ #76 into MSST's #53.
Form (last 5)
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ −0.4 per game over the last five, MSST −14.4.
Market
MIZ
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIZ by 7.5; the model says MIZ by 13.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIZ by 7.5 · model MIZ by 13.4
Mkt MIZ 7.5
Model MIZ 13.4
← MSST by 28tieMIZ by 28 →
7.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 56.0
Mkt 50.5
Model 56.0
24 pts6096 pts
14.5% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 56.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
